Winter Storm: What's Going On In Texas?! And elsewhere....

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by Stanford Guitar, Feb 16, 2021.

  1. 1293

    1293 Poster Extraordinaire

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    I have houses in NY and MA. Lots of solar and wind. No problems. The weather in TX is any day of the week here. 90% of the issues in TX are related to instrumentation at coal, oil, NG, and nuclear plants.
     
  2. BigDaddyLH

    BigDaddyLH Tele Axpert Ad Free Member

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    Math time! The phrase "one in a hundred years flood" actually means that the odds of it happening in a given year is 1-out-of-100. So the odds are 99-out-of-100 it doesn't occur in a given year. If (big if) the odds over the years are independent, then the odds of going N years without such a flood are (0.99)^N. How many years are needed, on average, for a "one in a hundred years flood" to happen with even odds? One hundred? Nope.

    (0.99)^N = 0.5
    N = ln(0.5)/ln(0.99) = 69 years
     
  3. Musekatcher

    Musekatcher Friend of Leo's

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    Is that true? I'm pretty sure, the term predates heavy minded statistics as a regular tool for farmers. Pretty sure the Corp and flood maps predate, and use hundred year flood for instance, as something that happens during that service life as a design criteria. Or, are you saying actuaries are informed by the statistical likelihood, which corroborates your mean time between events?
     
  4. BigDaddyLH

    BigDaddyLH Tele Axpert Ad Free Member

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    Are people tuckered out, making this argument?
     
  5. BigDaddyLH

    BigDaddyLH Tele Axpert Ad Free Member

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    I simply heard that the phrase meant "the odds are 1-in-a-hundred" not that 100 years will pass, on average, between such floods. Either way is a valid way to think about it, and require the same amount of calculation.

    https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/...ce_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects
     
  6. NightOwl

    NightOwl Tele-Meister

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    I wouldn't go quite that far. :lol:
     
  7. Musekatcher

    Musekatcher Friend of Leo's

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    I saw some abandoned wind mills in Europe on hillsides, and at sea a decade ago. There's some basic distribution issues that can't be solved with things like solar and wind energy sources, that constitute significant penalties. If you see cost-benefit take-offs that favor either, you know someone is either making an error, or a marketing decision. <g>
     
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  8. 1293

    1293 Poster Extraordinaire

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    We had one Monday night. My wife parked at the end of the driveway. A big limb came down where she usually parks.
     
  9. 1293

    1293 Poster Extraordinaire

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    I hadn't done a whole lot of reading before I posted that.
     
  10. 1293

    1293 Poster Extraordinaire

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    Explain?
     
  11. Dan German

    Dan German Doctor of Teleocity

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    Build a quinzee, or you’re not doing it right!
     
  12. Wallaby

    Wallaby Friend of Leo's

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    The destruction I'm reading about is shocking to me.

    The lack of supporting infrastructure and operational know-how is shocking to me.

    As a northerner transplanted southward, it's hard to read about.

    What a mess.
     
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  13. northernguitar

    northernguitar Friend of Leo's

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    What is the counter argument...with evidence?
     
  14. BigDaddyLH

    BigDaddyLH Tele Axpert Ad Free Member

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    Feelings > facts
     
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  15. trev333

    trev333 Telefied Ad Free Member

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    It's been on the news here, too... they said 3/4 of the US was under snow the other day...o_O

    man, that's a cold snap...:eek:
     
  16. Mr. Lumbergh

    Mr. Lumbergh Poster Extraordinaire

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    No, ERCOT said as much. The overwhelming majority of issues are at traditional heat plants. Wind turbines are actually putting out more than expected right now.
     
  17. Allan Allan

    Allan Allan Tele-Afflicted

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    I've broken enough rules already.
     
  18. 1293

    1293 Poster Extraordinaire

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    Joint problems. This is the first year I haven't in ages.



    FB_IMG_1576204718407.jpg
     
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  19. Hibernian

    Hibernian TDPRI Member

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    In Austin, with power. Lived in the midwest for years so this is not bothering me much but I stay off the roads as those who have never driven in snow are best avoided. Out doing some walking, the place looks great and people generally are in a decent mood considering. But it's hitting some folks hard (no water or power for 48 hours when temps are of the kind they have never experienced before, shops shut, deliveries limited, you get the idea). Are we tuckered out about the what caused the problems in Texas? Probably but so here's a link for those who want to read the reality about how little wind turbine has to do with this https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/texas-wind-turbines-frozen/
    I'm just tuckered out having BS presented as facts by people more interested in partisan politics than problem solving.
     
  20. Killing Floor

    Killing Floor Friend of Leo's

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    It's actually around 1.3% of the state's electric contribution. Our lines are all underground, which is the only place they belong. This is the first unexpected power failure we had in my home in 15+ years. But to your point there's no excuse for ERCOT to not have planned for a climate event. The load is no worse than a heat wave, just can't maintain the equipment in some areas so they're rolling blackouts.

    File this under Don't California my Texas.
     
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