# Winter Storm: What's Going On In Texas?! And elsewhere....

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by Stanford Guitar, Feb 16, 2021.

1. ### 1293Poster Extraordinaire

Posts:
8,165
Joined:
May 18, 2006

I have houses in NY and MA. Lots of solar and wind. No problems. The weather in TX is any day of the week here. 90% of the issues in TX are related to instrumentation at coal, oil, NG, and nuclear plants.

Posts:
57,092
Joined:
Sep 1, 2009
Location:
Kelowna, BC, Canuckistan
Math time! The phrase "one in a hundred years flood" actually means that the odds of it happening in a given year is 1-out-of-100. So the odds are 99-out-of-100 it doesn't occur in a given year. If (big if) the odds over the years are independent, then the odds of going N years without such a flood are (0.99)^N. How many years are needed, on average, for a "one in a hundred years flood" to happen with even odds? One hundred? Nope.

(0.99)^N = 0.5
N = ln(0.5)/ln(0.99) = 69 years

3. ### MusekatcherFriend of Leo's

Posts:
4,074
Joined:
Jan 15, 2013
Location:
meridianam altum centralis
Is that true? I'm pretty sure, the term predates heavy minded statistics as a regular tool for farmers. Pretty sure the Corp and flood maps predate, and use hundred year flood for instance, as something that happens during that service life as a design criteria. Or, are you saying actuaries are informed by the statistical likelihood, which corroborates your mean time between events?

Posts:
57,092
Joined:
Sep 1, 2009
Location:
Kelowna, BC, Canuckistan
Are people tuckered out, making this argument?

Posts:
57,092
Joined:
Sep 1, 2009
Location:
Kelowna, BC, Canuckistan
I simply heard that the phrase meant "the odds are 1-in-a-hundred" not that 100 years will pass, on average, between such floods. Either way is a valid way to think about it, and require the same amount of calculation.

https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/...ce_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

6. ### NightOwlTele-Meister

Posts:
460
Joined:
Feb 14, 2016
Location:
Somewhere out there...
I wouldn't go quite that far.

7. ### MusekatcherFriend of Leo's

Posts:
4,074
Joined:
Jan 15, 2013
Location:
meridianam altum centralis
I saw some abandoned wind mills in Europe on hillsides, and at sea a decade ago. There's some basic distribution issues that can't be solved with things like solar and wind energy sources, that constitute significant penalties. If you see cost-benefit take-offs that favor either, you know someone is either making an error, or a marketing decision. <g>

RodeoTex likes this.
8. ### 1293Poster Extraordinaire

Posts:
8,165
Joined:
May 18, 2006

We had one Monday night. My wife parked at the end of the driveway. A big limb came down where she usually parks.

9. ### 1293Poster Extraordinaire

Posts:
8,165
Joined:
May 18, 2006

I hadn't done a whole lot of reading before I posted that.

Posts:
8,165
Joined:
May 18, 2006

Explain?

11. ### Dan GermanDoctor of Teleocity

Posts:
11,432
Joined:
Feb 21, 2008
Location:
Left of the Left Coast
Build a quinzee, or you’re not doing it right!

12. ### WallabyFriend of Leo's

Posts:
2,113
Joined:
Feb 19, 2018
Location:
Here

The lack of supporting infrastructure and operational know-how is shocking to me.

What a mess.

ale.istotle likes this.
13. ### northernguitarFriend of Leo's

Posts:
2,572
Joined:
Jan 18, 2009
Location:
North of Toronto
What is the counter argument...with evidence?

Posts:
57,092
Joined:
Sep 1, 2009
Location:
Kelowna, BC, Canuckistan
Feelings > facts

PhoenixBill and loco gringo like this.

Posts:
26,738
Joined:
Dec 3, 2009
Location:
Coolum Beach,Australia
It's been on the news here, too... they said 3/4 of the US was under snow the other day...

man, that's a cold snap...

16. ### Mr. LumberghPoster Extraordinaire

Posts:
8,561
Joined:
Jun 13, 2013
Location:
Initech, Inc.
No, ERCOT said as much. The overwhelming majority of issues are at traditional heat plants. Wind turbines are actually putting out more than expected right now.

Age:
37
Posts:
1,025
Joined:
Jun 10, 2019
Location:
Illinois

18. ### 1293Poster Extraordinaire

Posts:
8,165
Joined:
May 18, 2006

Joint problems. This is the first year I haven't in ages.

Killing Floor and Dan German like this.
19. ### HibernianTDPRI Member

Age:
60
Posts:
37
Joined:
Jan 4, 2021
Location:
Texas
In Austin, with power. Lived in the midwest for years so this is not bothering me much but I stay off the roads as those who have never driven in snow are best avoided. Out doing some walking, the place looks great and people generally are in a decent mood considering. But it's hitting some folks hard (no water or power for 48 hours when temps are of the kind they have never experienced before, shops shut, deliveries limited, you get the idea). Are we tuckered out about the what caused the problems in Texas? Probably but so here's a link for those who want to read the reality about how little wind turbine has to do with this https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/texas-wind-turbines-frozen/
I'm just tuckered out having BS presented as facts by people more interested in partisan politics than problem solving.

20. ### Killing FloorTele-Afflicted

Posts:
1,967
Joined:
Feb 3, 2021
Location:
Austin, TX
It's actually around 1.3% of the state's electric contribution. Our lines are all underground, which is the only place they belong. This is the first unexpected power failure we had in my home in 15+ years. But to your point there's no excuse for ERCOT to not have planned for a climate event. The load is no worse than a heat wave, just can't maintain the equipment in some areas so they're rolling blackouts.

File this under Don't California my Texas.

loco gringo likes this.
IMPORTANT: Treat everyone here with respect, no matter how difficult!
No sex, drug, political, religion or hate discussion permitted here.