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U.S. Recession Was Over In June 2009... Who Knew?

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by castpolymer, Sep 20, 2010.

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  1. Agave_Blue

    Agave_Blue Friend of Leo's

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    No. Those things DO matter. But they are not part of the definition of what a recession is.

    IOW - the overall health of the economy is dependent on MORE things than whether or not we are currently in recession. Just like your personal economic situation is dependent on more than if you got a raise this year.
     
  2. jwsamuel

    jwsamuel Friend of Leo's

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    This is an Internet forum. I think you are expecting too much. :lol:

    Jim
     
  3. 1293

    1293 Poster Extraordinaire

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    Are you saying he's expecting too much?

    [EDIT] Nevermind, I didn't read the second sentence the first time.
     
  4. stantheman

    stantheman Doctor of Teleocity

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    I really doubt we'll ever get back to The Standard Of Living we had in 1986.
    Everyone that had a JOB was paid extremely well and consumed like crazy.

    Then some GENIUS thought it would be prudent to take everyone's JOB and send it to a place that could pay a lot less for the same work and things would be EXACTLY the same...
    Right. :rolleyes:

    So now all them great paying JOBS ARE HISTORY and nobody's buying anything so everything is grinding to a halt.

    That sound about right to you Professor Mankiw? :lol:
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2010
  5. AngelStrummer

    AngelStrummer Friend of Leo's

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    Look, I have a university degree in economics - I know the textbook definition of recession. I also happen to think that in a field of study where practically nothing is objectively measurable in the same way the ground speed of a moving vehicle is, that definition should evolve.

    If it doesn't evolve, politicians instrumentalise it so that it fits their agenda, with the help of experts, who usually happen to be on their payroll. As much as this article may not be that case, I'm hoping here that you get my point, even if you disagree with it.

    I know I'm on thin ice here and that this thread is now likely to get pulled. Apologies in advance to TDPRI.
     
  6. voodoo_idol

    voodoo_idol Friend of Leo's

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    Not sure what you mean by that. In a highly regulated economy like we have in the US and UK, almost every important economic statistic (input and output variables) is absolutely objectively measurable.

    The only things that are difficult to measure are the cause and effect relationships between various economic polices and eventual economic outcomes, mainly because those relationships are indirect, impure, and affected by outside forces such as psychology and politics.
     
  7. voodoo_idol

    voodoo_idol Friend of Leo's

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    You can correctly identify the mid-'80s origins of the free trade agenda that has succeeded in moving tens of millions of our manufacturing jobs overseas, and yet you listen to Monica Crowley?
     
  8. voodoo_idol

    voodoo_idol Friend of Leo's

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  9. mako224

    mako224 Banned

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    I'm in a unique position to guage the economy as I sell directly to businesses. I also watch my industry very closely across the country. My industry reflects the economy very well because when businesses are struggling or if they are fearful of the future they are definately not buying what my industry is selling. Around here and in my industry nationwide, business was in complete freefall in 2009. 2010 saw a temporary leveling off in the first quarter but its been in freefall again for the second and third.

    Regardless of what the pundants say this economy is on life support and is beginning to go downhill even worse than ever. Batten down the hatches folks.
     
  10. SteveGangi

    SteveGangi Tele-Holic

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    This.

    With a liberal dose of organic fertilizer from bulls or horses :)
     
  11. elicross

    elicross Poster Extraordinaire

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    I'm curious as to what specific part(s) of the story linked to in the OP are "smoke and mirrors" or "organic fertilizer." What do you believe the story says, and which specific elements of the story are bull?
     
  12. SteveGangi

    SteveGangi Tele-Holic

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    So, to simplify, the bad times are over except they aren't and things are getting better but they aren't and could get worse again. It sounds like "hey guys things are still in the toilet but let's call it something different now".
    I'd say they are doing their best to not commit to anything at all, preferring to play games with definitions. Bureaucracy and gobbledygook at its best.
     
  13. elicross

    elicross Poster Extraordinaire

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    What specific part of the story says "the bad times are over"?
     
  14. MikeS29

    MikeS29 Tele-Meister

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    +1, for the win.
     
  15. castpolymer

    castpolymer Poster Extraordinaire

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    :D
    Easily the most lucid statement of this thread ( and I am the OP ).
     
  16. otterhound

    otterhound Poster Extraordinaire

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    I will refrain from comment since half of my lies aren't true .
     
  17. Agave_Blue

    Agave_Blue Friend of Leo's

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    Oddly, I read it differently.

    I thought it said that although there is/was positive growth in economic output, the economy overall is poor and still at risk.
     
  18. Tim Armstrong

    Tim Armstrong Super Moderator Ad Free Member

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    You can't really have a discussion about much of anything when you can't agree about the definitions of the terms used. Saying that the recession is over ISN'T the same thing as saying the hard economic times are over. It's saying that the economy has (at least for now) bottomed out.

    "Not getting worse" is most definitely NOT the same thing as "getting better" or "returning to prosperity".

    And it should also be noted that ANY statement about the state of the economy as a whole doesn't necessarily apply to many specific industries or locales.

    Just sayin'...

    Tim
     
  19. kelnet

    kelnet Telefied Ad Free Member

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    Exactly!

    "Economy" refers to the entire system of trade, distribution and generation of wealth and so on. "Recession" refers to the downward direction of that system. As long the economy is going downward, we are in a recession. As soon as the economy (in very simple terms) starts to improve, it is no longer in a recession. Basically, it is no longer receding.
    Compare it to talking about the weather. "Boy, it's sure getting colder these days." This statement could apply to Alaska in December or to San Diego in October and be true in both cases. Obviously, though, it's going be damn cold in one place and quite nice in another. And when things start to warm up in Alaska in March, it doesn't mean it's actually warm outside. It just means it's not getting colder.
    So, when they say the recession is over, you might still need your fur hat and a parka, because the economic summer is still a long ways off.

    One of the problems is that people tend to want to apply a big label to this period of economic downturn. We call it The Recession - and it has echoes of The Depression, which we all know had a chronological beginning and end. People talk about "The Recession" in terms of a period of time, and expect that the end of "The Recession" should mean that the economy has returned to a state of prosperity. However, while there was only one "Great Depression," there have been many recessions, some big, some small. There have been recessions during periods of economic bounty.
    We should not be using the term to refer to a period of economic crisis. The word recession does not mean economic hardship, so perhaps we need another term that does. How about Hard Times.
    The recession has abated, but the Hard Times continue. The tide has turned, but the water is still low.
     
  20. SteveGangi

    SteveGangi Tele-Holic

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    I am not in the mood to quibble over definitions or semantics. I do know we are not about to start singing "Happy Days Are Here Again", and I don't really care how narrowly the eggheads choose to "define" their words. Unless they come up with solutions, the word games are totally irrelevant.
     
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