The housing market is BONKERS

Ron R

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Zillow is an extremely low measure of Reality, reality. Always ask a professional Realtor, not a machine. I am sorry you are having such a rough time, but like I said, you are not the only one and that is where the fear is. Your are not an isolated case, you are the norm.
I wasn't necessarily sweating it, just pointing out the situation. As it turns out, looks like it will work out quite fine for me.
FYI, the Zillow estimate was not off by much - place is going to be listed for $3K more than the Zillow estimate. Which, in the current market here, means it will likely sell for at least around $14K more than the Zestimate.
 

David Barnett

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I wasn't necessarily sweating it, just pointing out the situation. As it turns out, looks like it will work out quite fine for me.
FYI, the Zillow estimate was not off by much - place is going to be listed for $3K more than the Zillow estimate. Which, in the current market here, means it will likely sell for at least around $14K more than the Zestimate.

When available, I think Zillow incorporates data from the County Assessor's Office's appraisals. Certainly I've seen that when there's a mistake in the appraisal data, it's reflected in the Zestimate too. :)

I don't know what they do in areas that don't have property tax.
 

telemnemonics

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No, I'm not quoting RR, I'm just observing that a simple Google search reveals that in the last ten days, there are many articles stating the pressure brought to bear by rising interest rates is causing a slow down in sales. Ever increasing inflation and a failure of wages to keep up are going to halt sales to MANY people. Eventually, when the prices get too high, sales drop.

As an aside, I saw on tv the other day, the new Jeep based on a dodge truck frame STARTS at a price of over $97,000! Are there enough rich folks who want a Jeep to support that kind of price? I reckon we'll see, but no matter how much I would like to live up on the hill over looking Aroyo Grande, my pocket book prevents me from doing so. Eventually, can do, and want to collide for everyone.
Right, I was suggesting that just the dollar price coming down isn’t the same as homes becoming “affordable again”.

Course, we don’t know how it will go, while we DO know that it will change!
 

teleman1

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Zillow estimate are usually not accurate cause they can't count location & asset improvement in your home. Guy sells his home for $500,00. Another home in the development is the same home. But backed up to a Taco Bell & the only improvement in the last 18 years was when the A/C went out last July. His home is worth $420 but zillo has him bamboozled It also doesn't count homes selling too cheap because of getting ripped off by one of the Realty companies hounding you by TV, radio ,e-mail & calling you on the phone. While I can give constructive criticism, all bets on anything are off the way the market is now. This is far different than 08 and the fall may be hard for folks buying now w/ financing and without. THe financing folks will give their property back to the bank & go for cheaper rent, BUT, rent ain't cheap. And for the cash buyers, they will have to hang on through thick & thin. Renting will only be from corporations in a handful of years. Renting from a homeowner might be a scarce proposition. For a dozen reasons, I think we are near the ceiling, a saturation point. But again, here, corporations can sweep up, making the matter worse IMHO.
 
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getbent

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Zillow estimate are usually not accurate cause they can't count location & asset improvement in your home. Guy sells his home for $500,00. Another home in the development is the same home. But backed up to a Taco Bell & the only improvement in the last 18 years was when the A/C went out last July. His home is worth $420 but zillo has him bamboozled It also doesn't count homes selling too cheap because of getting ripped off by one of the Realty companies hounding you by TV, radio ,e-mail & calling you on the phone. While I can give constructive criticism, all bets on anything are off the way the market is no. This is far different than 08 and the fall may be hard for folks buying now w/ financing and without. THe financing folks will give their property back to the bank & go for cheaper rent, BUT, rent ain't cheap. And for the cash buyers, they will have to hang on through thick & thin. Renting will only be from corporations in a handful of years. Renting from a homeowner might be a scarce proposition. For a dozen reasons, I think we are near the ceiling, a saturation point. But again, here, corporations can sweep up, making the matter worse IMHO.
I'll bet you a case of beer that in 10 years, your predictions as vague and mitigated as they are, turn out not to be reality. (or 100.00 you pick)
 

teleman1

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Just remember, ANYTHING you see, advertising homes or properties, they are all FALSE LEADERS. Every Realtor is an independent Realtor There are NO Re-max, Realty Exec, Coldwell, etc, Realtors. If they are experienced & professional, the company doesn't matter. THere are great folks and lunatic at each company. Realtors are independent contractors working under the name. Odds are the number you call has no benefit to you, except, there is a Realtor picking up the call. The more advertising the company does, the less chance you have of getting a GOOD Realtor, just the next one in line. Take time, find a Realtor, one not consumed with their pocket book, but your interests. Buy them a cup of Coffee and have a chat. Meet the person who you will be spending a lot of money with and not pick them willy-nilly as most do. You will end up with a Realtor most likely, on way or another. Might as well have someone on your side.
 

teleman1

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I'll bet you a case of beer that in 10 years, your predictions as vague and mitigated as they are, turn out not to be reality. (or 100.00 you pick)
I bet in 10 years you probably won't be able to recognize the landscape of anything we have now. AND, it will be really sad for a lot of people. But I appreciate your hi-hopes!

 

Toto'sDad

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Right, I was suggesting that just the dollar price coming down isn’t the same as homes becoming “affordable again”.

Course, we don’t know how it will go, while we DO know that it will change!

I don't know that homes were ever "affordable." In 1965, I was making a decent wage for the day, but I couldn't afford to buy a $12,000 house (you know the one that sells for $800,000 in L.A. today). Houses for many have always been "just out of reach." I have to credit my wife for the home we have today, because she insisted, we buy our first home. Once I got going, I learned to play the game for myself. It takes self-control on other spending to become a homeowner. You can't buy gimcracks and new cars at high interest rates and hope to buy a home.
 
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BigDaddyLH

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Why isn't this working? More people are working from home, which should open up more possibilities for where they can live, rather than crowding into cities with booming economies. Shouldn't that widen the housing market and cool it?
 

getbent

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I bet in 10 years you probably won't be able to recognize the landscape of anything we have now. AND, it will be really sad for a lot of people. But I appreciate your hi-hopes!


is that a no on the bet?

I just like to know when people predict the future, how much they KNOW or are they just, you know... when I predict the future, I'm pretty sure and would bet on what I predict.

I always appreciate being dismissed though and underestimated, it has ALWAYS worked to my advantage.

My daughter works in real estate in NYC. She got a building that had been renovated and has about 70 apts. She rented all the apts in one day. She did a bunch of advanced marketing on tiktok and insta and made videos etc... she said at noon, she was really done, but stayed because she has another building coming available in a month or so.
 

imwjl

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@teleman1 and @getbent I understand these debates.

Zillow getting it right is actually simple and quite accurate. Recording real estate transactions as public records is an old part of our country's history. Now we just have it read, updated, and averaged with other data very often. Then people use it with the stuff that used to be in second semester stats class or an econometrics class. Their final step is put it in a good modern data visualization tool.

For other future stuff (speculation), naysayers rarely get it right. People make big mistakes dividing things with many shades into black and white. There re a few common cognitive biases that mess us up our species way too often. We do get and make bad situations but overall we improve. As bad as it can seem we're mostly in a world that gets better.

:)
 

getbent

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I don't know that homes were ever "affordable." In 1965, I was making a decent wage for the day, but I couldn't afford to buy a $12,000 house (you know the one that sells for $800,000 in L.A. today). Houses for many have always been "just out of reach." I have to credit my wife for the home we have today, because she insisted, we buy our first home. Once I got going, I learned to play the game for myself. It takes self-control on other spending to become a homeowner. You can't buy gimcracks and new cars at high interest rates and hope to buy a home.
I just did a little research. the average house price in 1965 was 21500. So, you were buying houses in down markets TD, but, you are right, at least in the sense of 'nothing new'. Interest rates were around 5-6% and home ownership was a reality for about 63% of Americans.

Today, Millenials make up the largest share of home owners and home ownership is a reality for 67% of americans in 2020, but that has plummeted, prepare yourself, to 65% today and still falling. Heck, it may correct to 63% of Americans which would mean we are back to where we were in 1965. Granted, percentage is misleading... a 4% swing in a population of 330 million people is a lot of folks who can't own homes. But, we read the news and watch the news and transmit 'knowledge' and in context, it is, well, not exactly doomsday, more like a thursday.
 

Toto'sDad

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I just did a little research. the average house price in 1965 was 21500. So, you were buying houses in down markets TD, but, you are right, at least in the sense of 'nothing new'. Interest rates were around 5-6% and home ownership was a reality for about 63% of Americans.

Today, Millenials make up the largest share of home owners and home ownership is a reality for 67% of americans in 2020, but that has plummeted, prepare yourself, to 65% today and still falling. Heck, it may correct to 63% of Americans which would mean we are back to where we were in 1965. Granted, percentage is misleading... a 4% swing in a population of 330 million people is a lot of folks who can't own homes. But, we read the news and watch the news and transmit 'knowledge' and in context, it is, well, not exactly doomsday, more like a thursday.
I don't disagree with what you say, but the figures are kind skewered from at least the central part of California. A very nice 3 bedroom bath and a half 1300 square foot house sold for about 12,500 in this area, but it was hard to buy a house. Unless you could qualify for an FHA loan, you had to pony up twenty percent down for a conventional loan. Most folks couldn't come up with the money.

Home ownership numbers were skewed by people buying homes that really couldn't afford them through FHA loans which in reality were 2% above what they said on the loan because of "mortgage insurance" which went into a fund to sue you if you defaulted. Twenty thousand HERE would have bought you about a 2000 square foot home in a nice area. I know, because I was here and looking at houses.

Given the realities of what it takes to not only squeeze into a loan, but maintain the mortgage, insurance and taxes, lots of people will never make it more than a year or two in their new homes. Review wages, look at what the prices are especially in Los Angeles where a dump will cost more than 600,000 dollars in south central L.A. Somethings got to give Charlie Brown, I don't care what the numbers say.
 

getbent

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I don't disagree with what you say, but the figures are kind skewered from at least the central part of California. A very nice 3 bedroom bath and a half 1300 square foot house sold for about 12,500 in this area, but it was hard to buy a house. Unless you could qualify for an FHA loan, you had to pony up twenty percent down for a conventional loan. Most folks couldn't come up with the money.

Home ownership numbers were skewed by people buying homes that really couldn't afford them through FHA loans which in reality were 2% above what they said on the loan because of "mortgage insurance" which went into a fund to sue you if you defaulted. Twenty thousand HERE would have bought you about a 2000 square foot home in a nice area. I know, because I was here and looking at houses.

Given the realities of what it takes to not only squeeze into a loan, but maintain the mortgage, insurance and taxes, lots of people will never make it more than a year or two in their new homes. Review wages, look at what the prices are especially in Los Angeles where a dump will cost more than 600,000 dollars in south central L.A. Somethings got to give Charlie Brown, I don't care what the numbers say.
right. your area is 'down market' as they say, so, what I wrote aligns with that.

mortgage insurance isn't used to sue folks. it insures the lender in the case of default. Once you get to 20% LTV, you can have the insurance removed as the lender will be able to recoup their loss.

Distrust the numbers if you will, but they actually align with your point!
 

Toto'sDad

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right. your area is 'down market' as they say, so, what I wrote aligns with that.

mortgage insurance isn't used to sue folks. it insures the lender in the case of default. Once you get to 20% LTV, you can have the insurance removed as the lender will be able to recoup their loss.

Distrust the numbers if you will, but they actually align with your point!
In practical application, the 2% is used just for what I said it was, in case of default, it gives the lender money to pursue the loan, foreclose and saddle the borrower with the bill, AND I find absolutely nothing wrong with that. I did know about being able to get the 2% removed from the loan, because like a lot of young Americans, our first home was bought through an FHA loan. We paid it down, and got rid of the 2%, still the loan was 7.5 percent in the 70s.

They got much worse later on, our second home was at 11&3/4 % on a conventional loan, and it was CHEAP for the time. By the time we got to our third home, a really nice place in a nice area, loans had come back down. I'm not really arguing with you, where you live, and here on the planet Bakersfield we might as well be worlds apart! ;)
 

Geoff738

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Just read that housing prices in Canada are double what they are in the States. Yikes!

Cheers,
Geoff
 

Tonetele

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From afar your house prices are insanely low. Was watching TV and saw huge " cabins" that have two baths, 3-4 bedrooms, decks etc for under 1/3 million. You can't find a house in a city in Oz for less than $1 m.
 




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