The housing market is BONKERS

shredmechanic

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Example of what $650K gets you in Austin


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Man, at least $650k will get you a house in Austin. I live in San Luis Obispo, CA and the median list price here is ~$850k but the median *sale* price is ~$925k...
 

Spox

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About three, maybe four, years ago I went on a dinner date with a lady who was on holiday here and who lived and worked on the upper West Coast USA. She worked in the cancer ward of a hospital but was, along with a lot of the other staff, having to consider looking for work in another city because tech had located to the area and it had filled up with what she described as people just out of either school or college who were making money that she and her colleagues could only dream of and that the cost of renting in the area had spiralled to match the earnings of those working in tech.

At my end I live in city housing in a crimeridden slum and want to get out of rented/social accomodation for good but have managed to save half of the amount which would get me a one bedroom damp ridden flat in another slum and less than a third of what I'd need to get just on the edge of the slum. The rocknroll lifestyle comes around and bites you hard on the ass when you're older if you aren't making rocknroll coin to go with it.
 

Lowerleftcoast

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What really is happening is Capitalism has a nasty virus. We are too dense in population where cities are. And the word socialism,(the kind that helps our school system, medical, and a lot of infrastructure), has been turned into a negative connotation. Capitalism works great with social institutions in place.
The crash is coming. Believe you me. Prices have peaked with the rise in interest rates. Interest rates will continue to rise is a misplaced effort to cap inflation. Demand will cool, not only for housing but other manufactured goods as well. The economy will contract. Layoffs will begin. Some of those who bought houses at the peak will default. Foreclosures will again be available, not cheap but not at peak prices. If you’re still working, wait for the crash before you buy. Then blame whichever party you don’t like for any misfortune that befalls you and congratulate yourself if the cards fall in your favor. Too bad for the losers.
I didn't make a career in the industry but I have a degree in economics. It has served me well when making financial decisions. To parrot @Toto'sDad *I can't tell you what is happening because as the good colonel said, some of us, can't handle the truth.* What I hope I can say, is that at least some of the TDPRI contributors seem to grasp what is going on. That is encouraging.
Fair enough point though at least in terms of economists trying to do their old established analyses of current market trends.
Be fair now, the comment was not made by an economist. All in all, the economist's old established analyses still serves us well. It makes it easy to see how the current market has been pushed to create buying and selling opportunities. I will admit... economic theory does not do well in a casino atmosphere. It was not established to analyze gambling.

One thing for sure, there will be winners and losers... again.

Ante up!
 

telemnemonics

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I didn't make a career in the industry but I have a degree in economics. It has served me well when making financial decisions. To parrot @Toto'sDad *I can't tell you what is happening because as the good colonel said, some of us, can't handle the truth.* What I hope I can say, is that at least some of the TDPRI contributors seem to grasp what is going on. That is encouraging.

Be fair now, the comment was not made by an economist. All in all, the economist's old established analyses still serves us well. It makes it easy to see how the current market has been pushed to create buying and selling opportunities. I will admit... economic theory does not do well in a casino atmosphere. It was not established to analyze gambling.

One thing for sure, there will be winners and losers... again.

Ante up!
My point was to suggest that we are entering a time when economists trying to analyze the housing market as if it was a single economic calculation or even multiple economic calculations like lost manufacturing jobs and larger demands for profit sucked out of the market leaving less for earners to buy with, that view is myopic and less functional if not also considering current and future water supply problems leaving populated areas unable to get enough water now yet still growing, homes being HOARDED for vacation or investment, diminishing lumber and fuel supplies, coastal flooding losing existing properties or making the cost of regularly rebuilding them unsustainable, and I can’t think of what all else.

We seem to be in a game of homeowners musical chairs where the number of homeowners or wannabe homeowners is far greater than the number of available homes.
Combined with the number of demands for construction crews being greater than the number of skilled carpenters plumbers and electricians.

A straight up old fashioned economic analysis that concludes prices are just high right now and will soon fall back to normal like the old days?
I‘m not convinced the old days of home buying will ever come back.
We wrung out all we could as if we could keep milking the same stone forever.
Same with fossil fuels, same with polluters pushing their luck until caught with every new pollutant, same with finance and Wall Street running cons until caught then creating new cons.

Those whose primary life values system is profit based, seem to as a whole rip run and rob until stopped, as if the planet would keep paying.
The planet is getting tapped out kids!
Back to normal is not on the menu…

IMO!
 

Jupiter

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Back to normal is not on the menu…

IMO!
Bonkers IS normal in late stage capitalism.

One day alla that capital is gonna figure this vein’s tapped out and it’s gonna go rushing into tulips or the metaverse (god I hope it’s the metaverse) or something else and there’ll be a giant sucking sound and many “little people” are gonna be flopping around like bluegills on the lake bed when the dam breaks.
 

David C

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We need more affordable houses.But we don't have enough water for more people.I live in your area.When's the last time it rained?We need water for life.
Water in the western US is the big issue that hasn't fully filtered in yet. I remember buying a new home in Highland Ranch in 1988 and I had to pay $3-4,000 for a water tap.
 
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teleman1

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That's the thing - as you said, rents are climbing too.
So, much as I hate that it's a seller's market, I am currently looking to buy. I currently pay a (relatively) decent rent to live in a nice townhome. But the owner has informed me she is going to be putting the place on the market. She hasn't told me yet what she is going to ask for it, but based on the Zillow estimate, I can afford it, but it's considerably more than I want to pay. And a good bit of that is location. There's a smaller town that would still be a reasonable commute to my office. The market is still stupid there, but at least not quite AS stupid. So that's where I'm looking. I'll hopefully be able to find a place there that even with an overpay, will cost me considerably less per month mortgage than what I'll pay in rent here.
Zillow is an extremely low measure of Reality, reality. Always ask a professional Realtor, not a machine. I am sorry you are having such a rough time, but like I said, you are not the only one and that is where the fear is. Your are not an isolated case, you are the norm.
We need more affordable houses. But we don't have enough water for more people. I live in your area. When's the last time it rained? We need water for life.
Can't talk water here because it breaks the rules.
 

getbent

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I didn't make a career in the industry but I have a degree in economics. It has served me well when making financial decisions. To parrot @Toto'sDad *I can't tell you what is happening because as the good colonel said, some of us, can't handle the truth.* What I hope I can say, is that at least some of the TDPRI contributors seem to grasp what is going on. That is encouraging.

Be fair now, the comment was not made by an economist. All in all, the economist's old established analyses still serves us well. It makes it easy to see how the current market has been pushed to create buying and selling opportunities. I will admit... economic theory does not do well in a casino atmosphere. It was not established to analyze gambling.

One thing for sure, there will be winners and losers... again.

Ante up!
Yeah. Econonmists. INfallible! ha ha!

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html
 

telemnemonics

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My neighbor just sold for an absurdly high price and is retiring to Costa Rica. Not a bad play, IMHO.
My wife has an uncle who did that.
Took a trip to see family and when he go5 back to Costa Rica there was somebody living in his rental and there was a pile of his stuff out front that had been gone through by the locals, leaving only the stuff that had no value.

I was told recently that I could get a German passport because my Mother emigrated here from Germany, allowing me to live anywhere in the EU.
Later learned that it only applies to kids born here in certain years.

Damn.
American for life!
 

telemnemonics

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All you have to do is google housing prices cooling or something like it to observe: What goes up, must come down.
Are you quoting Roy Rogers again?

WTH did he say, nobody’s making any more land?

Im not convinced that we won’t see home prices fall again but I’m guessing it will come topped with other things like interest rates going way up, young families having less money due to TP costing $199 a roll, and maybe kids parents getting a huge kid surcharge to cover grammar school costing $50,000 a year!
 

Toto'sDad

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Are you quoting Roy Rogers again?

WTH did he say, nobody’s making any more land?

Im not convinced that we won’t see home prices fall again but I’m guessing it will come topped with other things like interest rates going way up, young families having less money due to TP costing $199 a roll, and maybe kids parents getting a huge kid surcharge to cover grammar school costing $50,000 a year!

No, I'm not quoting RR, I'm just observing that a simple Google search reveals that in the last ten days, there are many articles stating the pressure brought to bear by rising interest rates is causing a slow down in sales. Ever increasing inflation and a failure of wages to keep up are going to halt sales to MANY people. Eventually, when the prices get too high, sales drop.

As an aside, I saw on tv the other day, the new Jeep based on a dodge truck frame STARTS at a price of over $97,000! Are there enough rich folks who want a Jeep to support that kind of price? I reckon we'll see, but no matter how much I would like to live up on the hill over looking Aroyo Grande, my pocket book prevents me from doing so. Eventually, can do, and want to collide for everyone.
 

Toto'sDad

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My wife has an uncle who did that.
Took a trip to see family and when he go5 back to Costa Rica there was somebody living in his rental and there was a pile of his stuff out front that had been gone through by the locals, leaving only the stuff that had no value.

I was told recently that I could get a German passport because my Mother emigrated here from Germany, allowing me to live anywhere in the EU.
Later learned that it only applies to kids born here in certain years.

Damn.
American for life!
Lots of folks around here used to plan on moving to Cabo San Lucas on retirement. A few years back, a very recognizable tv and radio personality who was also a new and used car dealership owner had a vacation getaway place down there in a gated community. He was found dead beaten to death in his own home. Not saying that the same thing can't happen here, but it's usually the poor folks that get that kind of treatment around here.
 




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