The history of when naysayers were correct.

[telemnemonics]

Interesting. Wonder how it is a can put lotion on my itchy skin, and the itching stops? Or how my hands can get cracked, and I can put moisturizer on them, and the cracking heals up and goes away?

To be clear, not saying any of those high dollar skin care products 'work' in the way of making one look younger, but I do believe certain creams, lotions, etc do actually help with various skin conditions. If it's all about moisture coming from under the skin, not sure how they can do that?

Well yeah my hands will get dry and crack from handling stuff that dries it out, like plaster dust, garden soil, solvents that strip the oils from skin.

Aging of the face skin is not really the same thingas hands that get dry from manual labor or just dry skin.
You CAN put moisture intothe skin from the outside.
But that is not making the internal system that grows new skin more healthy.
Kind of like the siding on your house vs the framing and foundation.
Connectwd but not the same systems.

As for itching problems, whole nother story...

 

[chris m.]

Interesting. Wonder how it is a can put lotion on my itchy skin, and the itching stops? Or how my hands can get cracked, and I can put moisturizer on them, and the cracking heals up and goes away?

To be clear, not saying any of those high dollar skin care products 'work' in the way of making one look younger, but I do believe certain creams, lotions, etc do actually help with various skin conditions. If it's all about moisture coming from under the skin, not sure how they can do that?

They work on the surface, but they do not reduce wrinkles or prevent the formation of wrinkles, which is a process occurring much deeper in the epidermis.

 

[telemnemonics]

I learned some things about a new tech sold to consumers without full disclosure of the limitations of the tech.

Heat Pumps.
Virtually all new construction and major renovation in my area of Maine has gotten heat pumps installed as primary heating and cooling systems.
At my job I take care of ten of them and find them to be fairly trouble free in terms of when they stop it is easy to start them again.
But I had felt like rooms were not very warm in winter, just never looked into it because I would be working and no guests are around to complain.

First thing I learned was that below some vague temperature, they stop heating. Temp at which that happens seems to depend on wind and is somewhere around zero F, but above the temp they stop, they work poorly.
So many consumers were taken by surprise when their new high tech heating systems failed and the explanation was that yeah when it gets really cold you will not have any heat and we knew that when we installed it for you for $20,000 a pop.

But the second thing I learned today came when I saw a tech working on my neighbors heat pump.
Neighbor is in Arizona during the winter and pipes are drained, so not really using the heat.
I previously learned that some heat pump units include auxiliary conventional heating elements for when temps fall below what heat pumps can manage. But almost none in my area include that aux heat source, all the Maine customers were sold expensive heating systems that only work when it is warm out.

Asked the tech if their heat pump had the aux and he said no.
Asked him if he got a call that it stopped working or was just doing a seasonal service which I had not heard was required.

He explained that power outages and the subsequent power surges when power comes back on, fried mother boards and motors in all the units his company installed and services. He was going down a list of 20 he has to replace boards and motors in.

Not asking questions about new tech is just bad judgement!
Amazed at how many customers got sold products that were not as advertized: year round heat and AC.

 

[chris m.]

I learned some things about a new tech sold to consumers without full disclosure of the limitations of the tech.

Heat Pumps.
Virtually all new construction and major renovation in my area of Maine has gotten heat pumps installed as primary heating and cooling systems.
At my job I take care of ten of them and find them to be fairly trouble free in terms of when they stop it is easy to start them again.
But I had felt like rooms were not very warm in winter, just never looked into it because I would be working and no guests are around to complain.

First thing I learned was that below some vague temperature, they stop heating. Temp at which that happens seems to depend on wind and is somewhere around zero F, but above the temp they stop, they work poorly.
So many consumers were taken by surprise when their new high tech heating systems failed and the explanation was that yeah when it gets really cold you will not have any heat and we knew that when we installed it for you for $20,000 a pop.

But the second thing I learned today came when I saw a tech working on my neighbors heat pump.
Neighbor is in Arizona during the winter and pipes are drained, so not really using the heat.
I previously learned that some heat pump units include auxiliary conventional heating elements for when temps fall below what heat pumps can manage. But almost none in my area include that aux heat source, all the Maine customers were sold expensive heating systems that only work when it is warm out.

Asked the tech if their heat pump had the aux and he said no.
Asked him if he got a call that it stopped working or was just doing a seasonal service which I had not heard was required.

He explained that power outages and the subsequent power surges when power comes back on, fried mother boards and motors in all the units his company installed and services. He was going down a list of 20 he has to replace boards and motors in.

Not asking questions about new tech is just bad judgement!
Amazed at how many customers got sold products that were not as advertized: year round heat and AC.

You raise good points. In 1997 I lived temporarily in an apt in Washington DC that had a heat pump, and I recall it totally stopped working during a cold snap. I'd like to think that HVAC engineers have figured out how to modernize heat pumps so they are much more reliable, including functioning effectively over a wider range of ambient temperatures. Maybe a TDPRI'er who knows the industry can enlighten us further.

 

[telemnemonics]

You raise good points. In 1997 I lived temporarily in an apt in Washington DC that had a heat pump, and I recall it totally stopped working during a cold snap. I'd like to think that HVAC engineers have figured out how to modernize heat pumps so they are much more reliable, including functioning effectively over a wider range of ambient temperatures. Maybe a TDPRI'er who knows the industry can enlighten us further.

Well they have figured it out, but the fix is an option.
Basically they add a conventional heating element that only comes on when it is too cold for the heat pump to pull heat from the air.
But as an opition it is not standard.

The poor planning is all the consumers who bought the tech in the last 5-10 years, in Maine where it gets colder than heat pumps work in, WITHOUT the aux option and without knowing the limitations.

 

[chris m.]

Well they have figured it out, but the fix is an option.
Basically they add a conventional heating element that only comes on when it is too cold for the heat pump to pull heat from the air.
But as an opition it is not standard.

The poor planning is all the consumers who bought the tech in the last 5-10 years, in Maine where it gets colder than heat pumps work in, WITHOUT the aux option and without knowing the limitations.

That seems crazy to me. Why wouldn't an HVAC company know the temperature range of the area they're working in, and therefore the models of heat pumps (with added heat element) that will actually work effectively in that climate? How does it make any sense for them to sell models that won't get the job done? Seems like it would just make for unhappy customers and very few recommendations for more business.

 

[tfarny]

Well they have figured it out, but the fix is an option.
Basically they add a conventional heating element that only comes on when it is too cold for the heat pump to pull heat from the air.
But as an opition it is not standard.

The poor planning is all the consumers who bought the tech in the last 5-10 years, in Maine where it gets colder than heat pumps work in, WITHOUT the aux option and without knowing the limitations.

Thanks for this - we are in the middle of buying a house that has brand new heat pumps installed, supposed to be state of the art. It rarely gets below 10 f here - but, it does once in a while...and that's when you really want the heat! The home has a working fireplace so I guess that's our backup....

 

[telemnemonics]

Thanks for this - we are in the middle of buying a house that has brand new heat pumps installed, supposed to be state of the art. It rarely gets below 10 f here - but, it does once in a while...and that's when you really want the heat! The home has a working fireplace so I guess that's our backup....

Well some heat pumps do have the built in alternate heat source.
But it seems not all customers are told they will be cold when it gets really cold!
NY is warmer than Maine but I am on the water which is also warmer.

 

[telemnemonics]

That seems crazy to me. Why wouldn't an HVAC company know the temperature range of the area they're working in, and therefore the models of heat pumps (with added heat element) that will actually work effectively in that climate? How does it make any sense for them to sell models that won't get the job done? Seems like it would just make for unhappy customers and very few recommendations for more business.

Yeah fair questions and big surprise in this community.
I hope the recent way below zero temps alerted consumers and service providers.
Just as an example, I brought my wife to work that coldest morning while the business owners are in Fla for the month.
The temp in the shop was 45f with the heat set for 65.
No heat at all was coming out though they were "on" and blowing a bit of cool air.

Similar thing with on demand water heaters.
Gas is fine here but the units die in less than ten years.
Electric on demand in conversation seems great.
I was shopping for one and after digging deeper it turns out that they depend on inlet water temp.
So in colder climates the inlet water is too cold for normal size on demand water heaters which when I shopped, seemed rated by house size and number of baths or users.
No hard numbers because for example the desired temp of hot water varies between maybe 110 at the lowest and 140 at normal high then 180 for restaurants.
Best figuring for good shower water was I would need the huge 300a heater, while many homes have a total 200a or some even have a 100a service for all electrical.
To get a 300a supply to a water heater the house would need at least a 400a supply and panel.

 

[Buckocaster51]

Our heat pump uses heat from 135’ deep water wells. Groundwater in non-volcanic regions is at the average yearly temperature of the region. Here that is in the upper 40s.

 

[chris m.]

Our heat pump uses heat from 135’ deep water wells. Groundwater in non-volcanic regions is at the average yearly temperature of the region. Here that is in the upper 40s.

That sounds more like a geothermal heat pump-- not the typical one, which is using outside air, not water.

 

[Buckocaster51]

That sounds more like a geothermal heat pump-- not the typical one, which is using outside air, not water.

You are correct sir. We thought we should do it that way because it gets cold here more than occasionally

 

[boris bubbanov]

Thanks for this - we are in the middle of buying a house that has brand new heat pumps installed, supposed to be state of the art. It rarely gets below 10 f here - but, it does once in a while...and that's when you really want the heat! The home has a working fireplace so I guess that's our backup....

The new systems work really well, on these superinsulated residential structures. For more conventional construction, they've improved but their efficiency does fall steadily as you get below about 40 Farenheit.

I hate it when I see the AUX text appear on my thermostat - it means I'm paying for Resistance heating and even when the kilowatts are cheap, that's a recipe for a higher electric bill. I'll turn the temp down make the demand smaller - then the heat pump can do the task. Turn it up only a degree or two at a time.

 

[TheCheapGuitarist]

We're actually living through a realization that the "naysayers" were correct. We were labeled with terrible and insulting names, but we were and are correct. And everyone else is finally catching up.

Not going to say what this is referencing, but I'm going to kick back and enjoy a popular Mexican beer. Cheers.

 

[chris m.]

You are correct sir. We thought we should do it that way because it gets cold here more than occasionally

My building has a similar system, but since we're right next to the ocean we rely on cold Pacific ocean water as our source of steady-temperature that can be used in a heat pump to cool or heat our building. The UCSB campus was already plumbed for seawater to circulate and supply various research aquaria, so we just tap off of that flow before it heads back to sea.

 

[nvilletele]

I haven’t read all ten pages . . .but I will nominate Galileo and Copernicus . . . .

. . . And all the many many scientists and philosophers who, over millennia, reject the lies and fantasies of the then prevailing religious institutions and leaders, and propose contrary views based on science and reason.

(For which they were usually killed in some horrific manner. Cuz, you know, these killers of ideas, and of people, are all about love. Right?)

Death to the naysayers (cuz it’s all about the blasphemy) ?

 

[Bass Butcher]

No it wasn't.

What was his priority then? Being a comedian...

 

[redhouse_ca]

This was very brief research, but I was looking for some history of when the naysayers were correct. Do any of you know of some quality reading on that? For examples, I love behavioral economics reading and the fantastic Yuval Noah Harari.

History of naysayers also seems complicated by the history of good data. History of good data seems interesting itself. For example an acquaintance with a career in meteorology and atmospheric science has travelled and collaborated to view ship captain logs going back hundreds of years in his Phd work and since.

The intention here is not argue but maybe find some very interesting and entertaining reading such as Harari or the way author Jonathan Waldman wrote about rust (corrosion, and his next book looks interesting).

Anyways, it really seems like naysaying is a poor profession overall. I thought maybe I'm missing a good book such as Waldman's writing, Harari and some more. If not that some interesting quantification of the matter.

As I think through this more. I am convinced that the fact-based (looking at the historical record) answer to your question of the history when naysayers were correct is all of human history.

 

[boris bubbanov]

I have this more though. I am convinced that the fact-based (looking at the historical record) answer to your question of the history when naysayers were correct is all of human history.

The naysayers are only correct, when Someone Else had control of the reins of history, and then they got pushed aside and later The Naysayers seized control away from them. Sometimes the history books were wrong the first time - often they were right.

When I read history, I see so often where "the facts" get changed and of course that makes fact based analysis (based on previous facts) fall down. What is in the historical record can be fact or it can be what "the winners" choose to state in place of what probably really happened. Funny, how many folks decide first how they want history to read, then they go back and "fix" the "facts" to make their version work all right.