The history of when naysayers were correct.

[imwjl]

This was very brief research, but I was looking for some history of when the naysayers were correct. Do any of you know of some quality reading on that? For examples, I love behavioral economics reading and the fantastic Yuval Noah Harari.

History of naysayers also seems complicated by the history of good data. History of good data seems interesting itself. For example an acquaintance with a career in meteorology and atmospheric science has travelled and collaborated to view ship captain logs going back hundreds of years in his Phd work and since.

The intention here is not argue but maybe find some very interesting and entertaining reading such as Harari or the way author Jonathan Waldman wrote about rust (corrosion, and his next book looks interesting).

Anyways, it really seems like naysaying is a poor profession overall. I thought maybe I'm missing a good book such as Waldman's writing, Harari and some more. If not that some interesting quantification of the matter.

 

[blowtorch]

I'm right, like. all the time
so there's that

 

[jackinjax]

Personally, I don't think this thread is going anywhere. But, that's just me.

 

[Linderflomann]

Define naysayer.

 

[BigDaddyLH]

Define naysayer.

Nope. Ain't gonna do it.

 

[imwjl]

Define naysayer.

Often called a Luddite. People against something and often a minority but vocal one.

My hope is finding some entertaining and insightful reading such as authors mentioned and not make TDPRI John jokes, but @BigDaddyLH already gave me a laugh.

 

[blowtorch]

i'd say the nays have it

 

[blowtorch]

Often called a Luddite.

Sometimes known as enlightened/a prophet.
It all depends on your circle and your preconceptions

 

[BigDaddyLH]

Often called a Luddite. People against something and often a minority but vocal one.

My hope is finding some entertaining and insightful reading such as authors mentioned and not make TDPRI John jokes, but @BigDaddyLH already gave me a laugh.

Not so fast! I'd say the defining feature about a Luddite is that they oppose progress, often technological progress. A naysayer is "one who consistently denies, criticises, or doubts; a detractor." In this thread I'd think naysayer was meant to be someone who opposed the prevailing sentiment and is later found to be correct. Luddites are rarely proved right.

 

[schoolie]

We don't have enough storage to write such a document.

 

[Linderflomann]

In this thread I'd think naysayer was meant to be someone who opposed the prevailing sentiment and is later found to be correct.

With a bit of recency bias, would crypto be an example where the naysayers were correct? Seemed to have a lot of hype behind it, major companies were starting to get involved, naysayers were getting mocked for not getting with the times, and then the whole house of cards came tumbling down.

 

[BigDaddyLH]

With a bit of recency bias, would crypto be an example where the naysayers were correct? Seemed to have a lot of hype behind it, major companies were starting to get involved, naysayers were getting mocked for not getting with the times, and then the whole house of cards came tumbling down.

That's a good example! Cypto sceptics were being told to "get with the times". I'd lump NFT naysayers in with them.

 

[Linderflomann]

That's a good example! Cypto sceptics were being told to "get with the times". I'd lump NFT naysayers in with them.

Now that we have an example, I suspect there's many more like that. Some novel invention which gets a lot of attention for a few months or years and then fizzling out. I suspect there's loads of examples of this in history but we don't have them readily available because of survivorship bias.

 

[unixfish]

Oh, this is dangerous. Everyone seems to be a naysayer anymore. Everyone fights and buck wisdom, conventional or otherwise. When they are challenged, they seem to point out some item in the past where conventional wisdom was wrong, and there are lots of people on the internet who now agree with their point of view.

Social media. Dumbing down the population in droves.

Hey - I just read an article that says tone wood is real, so I an converting all of my guitars to ash with rosewood fingerboards!

 

[BigDaddyLH]

Critics of the Munich agreement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time

 

[unixfish]

That's a good example! Cypto sceptics were being told to "get with the times". I'd lump NFT naysayers in with them.

Same with pyramid marketing schemes. "Lots of people made a ton of money!". Yep - those first 100 people who founded the scheme and jumped on will make a ton of money while you toil for peanuts.

 

[blowtorch]

Luddites are rarely proved right.

Until the happening/singularity/event horizon

 

[BigDaddyLH]

Until the happening/singularity/event horizon

Did I miss the rapture?

 

[chris m.]

Larry Summers was a naysayer against the widely accepted belief that recent inflation would be "transitory" once supply chain delays were resolved. Turns out he was right-- it is proving harder to quell than expected. But also nothing like the stagflation of the late 70s/early 80s, and also nothing like the 45% inflation PER MONTH that I experienced in Brazil in 1987.

 

[blowtorch]

Did I miss the rapture?

Like a thief in the night