SixStringSlinger
Poster Extraordinaire
No, I wasn't jesting. I think if you want to sell your music independently, you're going to have to sell it online. You can pay to have CDs made, and try to sell them at gigs, but if the gigs aren't frequent enough, then you won't sell many CDs.
I met an artist recently who depends on Youtube views, word-of-mouth, and digital downloads. She's not signed to a label, and has to organize her own small tours. Her music isn't suitable for club gigs or casino gigs, and her shows are often in unusual venues, like community centres and churches.
Most of her income comes from working in the film industry, which she got into about 20 years ago. She has a large network of contacts, which new, young artists might not have.
Also, when I talk about making a living, I mean an income that allows you to live comfortably and perhaps raise a family and not live in poverty after retirement. It used to be that a professional musician or singer or songwriter could live a nice life. I'm not talking about touring cover bands. I'm talking about people who are creating original material that people want to hear. How do those people benefit financially from their craft if the industry collapses and the labels are all gone?
I think I get where you're coming from. But I think the answer to your last question is similar to what it is now. Many people will be making music, and only a certain few will do well enough at it to constitute "making a living". These days a large deciding factor is whether a label decides the benefits outweigh the risks and therefore invests in you. In a label-less world it may be more a matter of who can market themselves the best, and get the best/most word of mouth, etc. Either way there will be artists who do better and worse, and more than a little luck is involved. Maybe less people (or perhaps even nobody) will be making Rolling Stones money. But I don't see that the making it/not making it ratio would change so much. The results would just be based on some different factors than they are now.