Please explain why Ian is a historic hurricane

Toto'sDad

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already is scrutinized like crazy. The fires in california and the west have shown that the encroachment of neighborhoods into wildlands comes at an incredible cost. At some point, the scale will tip to the degree that there will be lots of people rethinking lots of things.

My daughter took a picture of the new starlink satellite over her neck of the woods... she does HR for movie stars and producers and rock stars and all kinds of talented people. Until about 3 years ago, she lived in Beverly Hills and her life was incredibly fast paced and LA traffic etc.

Today, she lives outside Bend, Oregon and her boss lives on her Kentucky horse farm.

I think there is no part of the world that will remain untouched by these awful events, but, I think we can spread out a bit and figure it out. But, yeah, all locales will have to consider the metrics.
It's as if people when it comes to building in, and around places they shouldn't just do no research at all before going ahead with their plans. We have people who have built houses on naturally occurring bluffs. In Los Angeles they did that too. Many of them, when an earthquake, flood, or any kind of earth moving occurrence happens, simply slide down the hills. Many have settled on the downhill side and have to have hundreds of thousands of dollars in work to right them and make them habitable again.

Sure, they compact the lot, but in most cases even in unstable areas they test no further down than a few feet. You can with good compaction techniques get a pass on compaction over underground running water if you bridge the last few feet with proper compaction, but eventually the water underground will just wash it all away from the bottom up. I know this can be done, because I've done it in southern California at the owner's request. The guy who's doing the compaction test knows, sometimes even the buyers know, they DON'T CARE!
 

TheCheapGuitarist

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I don't believe these storms are happening more often due to warming. Hurricanes have been occurring for literally millions of years. How long have we been studying them - maybe 100? And we've only recently developed technology to see every one that occurs anywhere. Prior to satellites, we only knew about the ones that we've seen directly.

We have only a tiny fraction of the data needed to make any kind of "more often" assessment.
 

PhoenixBill

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I don't believe these storms are happening more often due to warming. Hurricanes have been occurring for literally millions of years. How long have we been studying them - maybe 100? And we've only recently developed technology to see every one that occurs anywhere. Prior to satellites, we only knew about the ones that we've seen directly.

We have only a tiny fraction of the data needed to make any kind of "more often" assessment.
As I wrote earlier, we have direct historical records going back over 450 years, when the Europeans colonized the Caribbean. Within a decade or so of Columbus’s rediscovery of the New World, hundreds of ships were regularly traversing the Caribbean and noting storms of importance. And we have paleontological studies that can go back a few thousand years. So you are incorrect in asserting that “we have only a tiny fraction of the data needed…” for we have far more than a mere 100 years worth of records.
 

chris m.

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No one is arguing that the frequency of storms is significantly changing. Rather it is their intensity-- winds, storm surge, and rainfall. This is due to them passing over much warmer waters. There are numerous data sources that allow scientists to know what ocean temperatures were in the past, such as data from ocean sediment cores and coral reef growth analysis as two examples. (The reefs build on themselves so you can look at their growth in a manner analogous to tree ring analysis). But nowadays tropical depressions are more likely to become tropical storms. Tropical storms are more likely to become hurricanes. And hurricanes are more likely to be more severe.
 

dspellman1

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Cut and Pasta:

Ian became the 37th major hurricane — a designation reserved for storms of Category 3 intensity or greater — to have ever struck the state of Florida, and just the 15th to be rated a Category 4 or higher. Records of hurricane intensity date back to 1851.

By measure of sustained winds at landfall, Ian is in an eight-way tie for the fifth-strongest storm to strike the United States. Over the past two years, two other storms pummeled the United States with winds up to 150 mph: Hurricane Ida, which just last year carved a path of destruction from Louisiana to New York, and Hurricane Laura, which also slammed into Louisiana and brought with it a 17-foot storm surge.
 

getbent

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Pitch til you win I guess. Page 8 will be:

"Welllllll ACCCCCCTUALLLLLY, don't you mean 'AN historic hurricane?'"
we have a history professor on the TDPRI and he told me that 'an' thing is no longer a thing anymore. which I dig because it is a new thing to unlearn, which is cool.

As for the other side of the coin---> some gonna think this, some gonna feel that and ain't no progress to be had on that front.
 

telemnemonics

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Cat 5 hurricanes don't develop in the Gulf of Mexico very often - they're more a Caribbean / Atlantic thing. When they do, they don't turn east and hit the west coast of Florida. This graphic shows all the cat 5 hurricanes since 1924, and you can see their stomping ground clearly. Calling it historical is hyperbole, but it's definitely outside the standard deviation for storms this devastating.

trop-atl-cat5-lorenzo2019.gif
If you are an old person who lived on the West coast of Florida all your life, it is not hyperbole to call this "historical".

Many of us seem to feel that dead people is just normal everyday stuff until we are them.

Them to whom it happens obviously count more carefully than us to whom its just talking heads on TV!

How can anyone who is not "there" feel qualified to qualify for them who ARE there?
 

ChicknPickn

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I think one of the things that will make this historic is that it will be the last straw- catalyst for a major re-think about how to finance all of this human infrastructure when it is clearly at risk of being destroyed again. Less than 20% of the affected homes had flood insurance. The maximum grant folks can get from FEMA is $37k. Insurance companies are going to take a major hit and will be thinking about how they can possibly afford to insure people in high risk areas in the future, at premiums that are affordable to the home owner.
^^^
This.
Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly, expecting different results each time. When the reinsurers have had their fill, though, things WILL change.
 




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