Guitar store owner agreed w/me regarding falling vintage prices (that's one...)

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by Mike Eskimo, Apr 25, 2018.

  1. metalicaster

    metalicaster Tele-Afflicted

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    I'm a wanderer...

    This may be taken as heresy on a guitar forum.

    But for somebody who buys guitars just to actually play,

    A Tele IS a tele, a strat IS a strat.
    If it sets up nicely and sounds how it's "meant" to sound, you're done.

    If you weren't there back in the day, the cultural significance it held or the slight variations of each era are going to mean less than the actual qualities of the object, who cares what's "original" anyway?
     
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  2. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Doctor of Teleocity Ad Free Member

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    This thread deals with the value of vintage guitars in the future.

    Not new guitar sales last year.

    Or any year.

    I couldn't give f***all about that.

    (on the other hand, the more new guitars sold each year certainly eats into the vintage buyers market (only so much money in the world).

    If George Gruhn is now worried about finding a buyer for every vintage piece that is going to come on the market in the next ten years (and he is) then - he's as smart as I am.

    It's increasingly apparent that part of the backlash and pushback is ego and an inability to accept a different worldview/outlook on what's important to someone other than yourself.

    I've had a blast buying and selling vintage guitars and amps and gear.

    I've owned some amazing stuff.

    But I don't take it personally when people don't share my interest or even say things like "One Strat's as good as any other !"

    Who cares ?

    My parents hated The Beatles and I - ok that's a bad example...:lol:
     
  3. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Doctor of Teleocity Ad Free Member

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    Exactly.
     
  4. tfarny

    tfarny Friend of Leo's

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    You guys are SO WRONG! Wow! It's cool, I still like you.

    This was big news around here not long ago, that electric guitar sales had fallen by half in a short period - here's one of many things written about it - http://blog.reverbnation.com/2018/02/06/electric-guitars-decline-in-popularity/ There were several articles on this topic, no research showing the opposite trend that I have seen.

    The fact that Taylor Swift strums open chords onstage was considered great news for Fender - that's how bad it is out there for the guitar makers.

    I work in education, and I can guarantee you that music programs have been gutted and that school music ed WAS important for many, many kids to get the music bug in some way. Whether the Sex Pistols, or any specific band, did or not, couldn't be less relevant. Could cite plenty of research here, but you can google it up pretty easily and I'm not working now.

    I see on that list of the most popular live acts almost entirely geezer shows that will mostly be attended by over 50s with a few exceptions. The ONLY young-ish act on that list that feature guitars is the Arctic Monkeys. I'm not going to listen to Imagine Dragons - if I'm wrong there, keep it to yourself. :)

    Anecdotally, I play music with a great cast of characters of all ages. So far I have played live gigs with two people under 20, and at least 8 people over 65. Plenty of others in their 40s and 50s. But around my young, hip neck of the woods (an artsy town in the Hudson Valley) the rock and roll crowd is a lot closer to assisted living than they are to high school. I'm not confusing that with data and trends, though. But it all points in one direction!


    OK, I'm out. Have fun disagreeing with me.
     
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  5. notmyusualuserid

    notmyusualuserid Friend of Leo's

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    The global financial crisis put a squeeze on available/disposable income. The market has been recovering since 2011 :)
     
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  6. Dacious

    Dacious Poster Extraordinaire

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    Well, I'm just gonna wait til Buddy Holly's Strat appears on eBay for $500 Buy It Now and then lowball them with an offer for $350.......

    Really, saying kids don't buy guitars so vintage sales will tank is like saying kids buy alcopop, so the vintage wine market is in trouble.

    I'd agree, sales of new instruments is not an adjunct to value of collectibles, like sales of Corollas doesn't affect the value of Ferrari GTOs. In both cases prices are driven by rarity of something acknowledged to be special. Would a modern commuter find the Ferrari practical in traffic? No. Missing the point. If you can afford it you can afford rare outings to concours and parades it's trailered to.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
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  7. rze99

    rze99 Poster Extraordinaire

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    Silly nonsense.

    For genuinely good, genuinely vintage kit there will ways be a good, sensible market for discerning buyers. There's a huge world of developing economies and therefore will be middle class miss that want cool original stuff, not cheap Chinese copies.

    We have seen hyper inflation of this stuff and there's a necessary market correction.

    Technology changes, yes. Tell that to the guys that chucked their good vinyl for crappy streaming services and their disposable iPhones.
     
  8. warrent

    warrent Friend of Leo's

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    upload_2018-4-26_18-11-37.png
    here does this help
     

    Attached Files:

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  9. JuneauMike

    JuneauMike Friend of Leo's

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    There's just so much negativity underpinning the premise of this post here to disagree with. Is the guitar collector in the OP surprised that kids aren't buying his vintage gear? Through several posts you've made a point of the fact that kids are broke. Of course they aren't going to buy vintage musical instruments.

    And new guitars aren't related to vintage guitars? Where do you think vintage collectors come from? They tend to be people who play guitar. So new guitar sales can give a measure of the interest in stringed instruments in general and you could even extrapolate out and project that at least some small percentage of those folks will become dentists or doctors and thus have the money to buy vintage someday. Or PRS. Additionally, new guitar sales aren't competing with vintage instrument sales for buyers, two different consumers motivated differently.

    There are more than enough youngsters who want to buy what oldsters have. Unfortunately, they can't put anything on the table but their elbows, cause they're broke youngsters.

    I think George Gruhn is smart and less panicky than you. He'll be fine.

    Not sure what backlash or pushback you are referring to, nor do I really have the ability to divine that its rooted in "ego" and the "inability to accept a different worldview/outlook." The subject is valuable guitars. Inability to accept the worldview of others probably has little effect on sales prices. Ego can affect asking prices, but eventually the market dictates what value your instrument has.

    Just the same, Vintage Guitars put out a 42 Guitar Index (eh, dubious value, but its something). Here's what they've seen in the vintage guitar sales market. I don't own any vintage guitars, and personally, I think they are terrible investments because of the risk and upkeep, and stress and insurance cost of holding onto them. But to each his own.

    CHART42INDEX2016.jpg
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
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  10. jondanger

    jondanger Poster Extraordinaire

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    Compare to this graph of all retail sales 2000 - 2016 superimposed over GDP, which (respectfully) challenges the explanatory power of your chart.

    View attachment 509804
     
  11. JuneauMike

    JuneauMike Friend of Leo's

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    How so? Can you point me to that chart? Oh, and let me point out, I'm not arguing. Just want to understand your contention.
     
  12. jondanger

    jondanger Poster Extraordinaire

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    Post edited to add ^
     
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  13. JuneauMike

    JuneauMike Friend of Leo's

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    ....
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  14. jondanger

    jondanger Poster Extraordinaire

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    74FE3457-BFAC-41F3-AB8E-A7562E285C59-5406-000004EA13CADD54.JPG

    I think when I edit an existing post to add an image, I get that error message. Hope this one works . . .
     
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  15. jondanger

    jondanger Poster Extraordinaire

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    Basically I think you’ll discover that all retail sales began to rebound in 2009 - wait, unless that’s what you meant? Sorry I was chaperoning a second grade field trip all day and let’s just say I’m not at 100% perceptiveness.
     
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  16. JuneauMike

    JuneauMike Friend of Leo's

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    It's weird how the GDP tracks with guitar sales (see the dip in 2009-2010). But retail sales saw more extreme swings. I would have thought that new guitar sales would be the extreme version of consumer spending, but they kinda look pretty steady. Retail sales is a function of consumer confidence and discretionary spending, right? (I'm an amateur at reading economic data, but that's my simplistic view).

    How do you read it?
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  17. JuneauMike

    JuneauMike Friend of Leo's

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    What!!!! Dude, what are you doing here? You should be on the couch well into your third beer and fifth aspirin.

    And to the winky face, yeah I was kinda being a smart-ass. I said Rock and Roll died in 2009, then it got better. Which I thought was rye humor.
     
  18. jondanger

    jondanger Poster Extraordinaire

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    I kind of wonder if the guitar data is including online sales, and the chart that I put up is excluding online sales.

    I think you’re right about retail sales reflecting consumer confidence. Also, the stimulus package helped keep the GDP from falling as much as consumer confidence dropped - whether the increase in the debt ratio is worth it is of course a matter of debate for another platform. But my interpretation is that tons of chicken little economic news depressed consumer confidence, while government spending buoyed GDP behind the scenes.

    But my main point was that I think that you could produce a very similar chart for auto sales, usda prime beef sales, spending on HVAC systems, etc.
     
  19. JuneauMike

    JuneauMike Friend of Leo's

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    Yeah, but look at the charts again. Retail sales are all over the place. But when you get down to it, guitar sales are relatively stable. Started as $1 billion and some change market, dipped down to $800 million, but then back to a $1 billion and change market.

    I would have guessed that guitar sales would fluctuate more wildly than retail sales in general since so much of it is predicated on discretionary spending. Whether mom buys Jr. a starter guitar and amp for his birthday hinges on whether dad think's he's gonna get that bonus this year. That kinda thing.

    Isn't that weird?
     
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  20. jondanger

    jondanger Poster Extraordinaire

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    Looking at my chart again, retail sales are represented as a percentage of GDP, which makes them appear more volatile. Also, the X axis doesn’t start at zero, which isn’t bad or misleading in and of itself, but it should always inform the way one reads a chart.
     
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