Guitar Price Weakness Starting??

[MainLine Florida]

I do believe that with summer coming, glutted inventories, plus the overall economy, guitar prices -both used and new are starting to come down....finally. Vintage market also starting to sag. Prices have been obscene for quite a long time and a correction is long, long overdue.

 

[mandoloony]

From what I've seen, selling prices never experienced a major bump over the last few years. It was just asking prices that went crazy, with the result that lots of stuff has been sitting unsold during that time.

 

[chillybilly]

I daresay that vintage owners/sellers have sat on instruments for a very long time and the earth has shifted beneath their feet.

1) I used to attend an annual show. The same exhibitors every year, the same guitars, the same prices. It was obviously their belief that price elasticity of demand did not exist. Most of them were older/retirees. They merely packed up, moved to the next show and set up the tables and chairs again hoping for a sucker.

2) The prevailing attitude was that they were going to wait until someone paid over the odds and make a nice little $10-15k score.

3) They also seemed to say - or said outright - that if they couldn't sell the instrument at their price they would pass it on to their children. But children these days aren't playing as much guitar. And they often have no idea about or interest in its worth. They might sell for $8-10k or what the market will bear but they are iPhone/DAW/MIDI/synth musicians and aren't all that fussed about year of make or model or features etc. So the grand 'heirloom' plan isn't necessarily working out. Amps are an even more difficult sale due to the bulk, size, weight, care & feeding of old tube builds and the fact that modelers and other tech are available to guitarists of any age, skill, genre, intended use etc.

4) As Father Time taps them ever more firmly on the shoulder with each passing day, what will they do?

5) The debate about relics will never end peacefully but the reality is that a) relics and vintage instruments are damned hard to tell apart in many cases b) many high-end/custom shop guitars, especially Fender clones, are relic'd c) a high-end guitar (relic or otherwise) and a vintage instrument are very close in spec, quality, playability....and price. But not always. If the high-end relic reissue is $2k less than a vintage of even questionable provenance then the vintage guitar/owner may frequently lose out.

6) One analogy might be classic cars especially at classic car shows. The hot rodder still in the game at age 60 is now seeking to exit the game and fast now that he's got a bad hip or bad back and can no longer work on his car at age 80 - not to mention the scarcity and cost of parts. He may have sold his house and moved/downsized (no garage or storage). Or he has medical expenses. We played a gig at a massive car show and I was somewhat surprised at the number of vehicles for sale. Perhaps it's similar to a guitar show where a 'sale' is actually just a feeler but many of the window stickers indicated the sellers were quite motivated to find a buyer - not least because hauling a car around is even more burdensome than the heaviest Fender Twin.

 

[Killing Floor]

Also keep in mind every vintage market for any kind of object is limited and once it’s satiated it falls straight off a cliff. Vintage guitars have maybe 10 years left before those old Strats are worth as much as vintage grandfather clocks and vintage cans and bottles or vintage toy trains.
Before long someone will reply with “but guitars are different”. But they’re not.
Guitars aren’t going anywhere. But the vintage mania for 50s and 60s stuff will fade as people age out.

 

[burntfrijoles]

I do believe that with summer coming, glutted inventories, plus the overall economy, guitar prices -both used and new are starting to come down....

Other than the supply chain disturbances which occurred in 2020-22, it's always been relatively easy to get something off of the asking prices. My last three purchases over the past 2 years, I paid 15% off MAP. However, Fender, Gibson, Taylor, Martin aren't lowering their MAP ever.
The used market is probably soft right now. Sellers were (and still are) asking ridiculous prices. Like someone else posted, they're probably not getting their asking price.
I don't think the economy will encourage manufacturers or retailers to lower prices. In fact, it may be just the opposite. Plus the stock market is booming, unemployment is at historic lows, with new job creation high.

 

[Knows3Chords]

Sweetwater and Guitar Center are selling Fender Telecaster Player Series for $679. That's the lowest I've seen them.

 

[Geoff738]

Ive been watching a couple vintage J45s for sale local-ish. They’ve both been sitting for months. One is clearly overpriced imo, but the other one seems like it’s in the ballpark of what these seem to go for. And yet it sits. Just one anecdotal example, but they aren’t the only vintage guitars I have seen recently that took a long time to find a buyer. Then again, other stuff goes pretty much instantly. I am not always a good judge of which will fly off the shelves and which will sit.

Cheers,
Geoff

 

[Dismalhead]

I was Les Paul shopping just recently. It does seem like they're running them a few hundred less than just a couple of months ago. Be nice if we actually saw prices come down for once.

 

[Jontycaster]

Sweetwater and Guitar Center are selling Fender Telecaster Player Series for $679. That's the lowest I've seen them.

Fender Limited Edition Player Telecaster Electric Guitar, Maple Fingerboard, Lake Placid Blue ($529)

That's just one color, not the whole line, but it's a great deal. I just bought one myself.

 

[pbenn]

I daresay that vintage owners/sellers have sat on instruments for a very long time and the earth has shifted beneath their feet.

1) I used to attend an annual show. The same exhibitors every year, the same guitars, the same prices. It was obviously their belief that price elasticity of demand did not exist. Most of them were older/retirees. They merely packed up, moved to the next show and set up the tables and chairs again hoping for a sucker.

2) The prevailing attitude was that they were going to wait until someone paid over the odds and make a nice little $10-15k score.

3) They also seemed to say - or said outright - that if they couldn't sell the instrument at their price they would pass it on to their children. But children these days aren't playing as much guitar. And they often have no idea about or interest in its worth. They might sell for $8-10k or what the market will bear but they are iPhone/DAW/MIDI/synth musicians and aren't all that fussed about year of make or model or features etc. So the grand 'heirloom' plan isn't necessarily working out. Amps are an even more difficult sale due to the bulk, size, weight, care & feeding of old tube builds and the fact that modelers and other tech are available to guitarists of any age, skill, genre, intended use etc.

4) As Father Time taps them ever more firmly on the shoulder with each passing day, what will they do?

5) The debate about relics will never end peacefully but the reality is that a) relics and vintage instruments are damned hard to tell apart in many cases b) many high-end/custom shop guitars, especially Fender clones, are relic'd c) a high-end guitar (relic or otherwise) and a vintage instrument are very close in spec, quality, playability....and price. But not always. If the high-end relic reissue is $2k less than a vintage of even questionable provenance then the vintage guitar/owner may frequently lose out.

6) One analogy might be classic cars especially at classic car shows. The hot rodder still in the game at age 60 is now seeking to exit the game and fast now that he's got a bad hip or bad back and can no longer work on his car at age 80 - not to mention the scarcity and cost of parts. He may have sold his house and moved/downsized (no garage or storage). Or he has medical expenses. We played a gig at a massive car show and I was somewhat surprised at the number of vehicles for sale. Perhaps it's similar to a guitar show where a 'sale' is actually just a feeler but many of the window stickers indicated the sellers were quite motivated to find a buyer - not least because hauling a car around is even more burdensome than the heaviest Fender Twin.

You are so right on #4, #chillybilly. I had so much red mist in my 7-year vintage VW body-off that it took me about 4 to admit that the whole hobby was an adjunct of cheap or free light industrial real estate.

 

[985plowboy]

You are so right on #4, #chillybilly. I had so much red mist in my 7-year vintage VW body-off that it took me about 4 to admit that the whole hobby was an adjunct of cheap or free light industrial real estate.

Do what?

 

[Alaska Mike]

Recent production:
A lot of people are downsizing or refining their collections on the used side. A lot of them overbought during COVID, and now the market is over saturated. That affects the retail/new side, and many retailers are getting around MAP by selling stuff on Reverb as seconds or used. Fender (among others) opened the door by heavily discounting stuff on their own site and Amazon. When a lot of people figure out they have enough or too many guitars (whatever that number is), prices drop.

Vintage:
The vintage market is something I just don’t dabble in. I remember playing a bunch of used ‘60s-‘70s duds back in the ‘80s that probably are worth a fortune today. Old does not equal good. Making them better (playable) usually decreases the market value. The relic world does the vibe in a more consistent playable form, if that’s your thing. Most guys driving the market are collectors and investors, not players. Different playing field.

That said, my ‘86 MIJ Tele is technically vintage. It’s a reissue of a vintage guitar (‘62) that is now vintage itself. I have never treated it such.

 

[MainLine Florida]

As JP Morgan once said to someone who told Morgan he could not sleep because there were no sales: "lower your price to the selling point".

 

[Happy Enchilada]

Every year around my birthday (early August) I treat myself to a new guitar or amp.
To reward myself for toughing it out another lap around the sun.
This has been a particularly HELLISH year (won't get my THR surgery until August 12).
Lots of pain and frustration. LOTS.
So ...
I'm thinking about a new Guild F55 with the rosewood back and sides and the Anthem pickup.
Cheapest I've seen 'em ("B-Stock" with "cosmetic blems") is around $3K.
Hoping that if the market continues to be soft, maybe I can save a few shekels.
Hee hee!!!

Alternative would be the D55 ... but for some reason it's more $$$.
Besides, I have a D40 that I love.
I also have the maple F55 ...
But you can never have too many Jumbos, eh?

 

[notmyusualuserid]

If you want a future return on a financial investment, buy gold.

Anyone that expects a mass produced guitar to be valuable in the future is a bit of an eejit.

 

[Alaska Mike]

If you want a future return on a financial investment, buy gold.

Anyone that expects a mass produced guitar to be valuable in the future is a bit of an eejit.

COVID skewed a lot of perspectives on resale value. A lot of people did think they could pay retail, wait a couple months, and sell something on Reverb for more than they paid. Part of that was driven by Fender price hikes, part supply/demand.

I try not to lose too much when I sell, but occasionally I make a little here or there. Losses I consider rental fees. But in this market, the losses I would incur are enough that I am less interested in selling. I will put a guitar or two out there for what I consider a fair price, and if they sell, great. I don't usually trade and I rarely haggle. I can wait. There are worse things in the world than keeping a guitar.

 

[monkeybanana]

Recent production:
A lot of people are downsizing or refining their collections on the used side. A lot of them overbought during COVID, and now the market is over saturated. That affects the retail/new side, and many retailers are getting around MAP by selling stuff on Reverb as seconds or used. Fender (among others) opened the door by heavily discounting stuff on their own site and Amazon. When a lot of people figure out they have enough or too many guitars (whatever that number is), prices drop.

Vintage:
The vintage market is something I just don’t dabble in. I remember playing a bunch of used ‘60s-‘70s duds back in the ‘80s that probably are worth a fortune today. Old does not equal good. Making them better (playable) usually decreases the market value. The relic world does the vibe in a more consistent playable form, if that’s your thing. Most guys driving the market are collectors and investors, not players. Different playing field.

That said, my ‘86 MIJ Tele is technically vintage. It’s a reissue of a vintage guitar (‘62) that is now vintage itself. I have never treated it such.

I just got a '76 mocha Strat. Alder, 7 lbs. Pickups sound great. Looks like it was made a year ago. Affordable. I know a guy who is selling two and they're around 7.2 lbs. They're out there!

 

[Highway 49]

Hmm, and I’m just finally getting round to putting some things on eBay - great timing !

 

[Holy smokes]

So with the stock market hitting all time highs you see a big correction coming like after the us elections or anther black swan. Sure seems overdue

 

[chris m.]

So with the stock market hitting all time highs you see a big correction coming like after the us elections or anther black swan. Sure seems overdue

The stock market is being driven by a small number of very huge tech companies. They are all bullish on the promise of A.I., so prices keep going up. Some kind of event will trigger a correction, undoubtedly, but as long as the investor can hang on for the ride it seems that the market gets right back to its earlier high within just a few years. If it doesn't, then there's a good chance we have even more existentially dire things to worry about than the size of our 401(k)s-- wars, pandemics, climate disasters, etc. Maybe I've been watching too many dystopian movies lately, but it wouldn't take too much to really crater the status quo existence most of us take for granted.

Doomsday preppers might be a bit paranoid....but that doesn't mean they're wrong....my closest thing to prepping is having at least one acoustic guitar so I can still be heard if we don't have electricity anymore.