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Guitar and Amp Market Saturation Coming Soon

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by ArcticWhite, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. Wally

    Wally Telefied Ad Free Member

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    “th8ngm way moo”


    Creative writing by IPad Air!!! It should read ‘imho’.....but I am leaving it as is. How else can the language evolve???? eeeehaw......
     
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  2. Octorfunk

    Octorfunk Tele-Holic

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    I think the fairly recent influx of perfectly playable low-cost guitars, coupled with "kids" these days having far less networth than their parents did at the same age is having the largest effect on the guitar market. If a $1,200 guitar is a pipe dream for most 20's-30's these days, they're forced into inexpensive guitars. Once you're forced into it, you begin to realize that you don't actually need an expensive guitar.

    I've been playing homemade guitars for about 3 years now, and it's hard for me to imagine spending more than $400 on a guitar anymore. I'm so used to being able to customize my guitars to my own specifications, I don't know if I could find a guitar in the store that would suit me perfectly.

    Now are those brand new guitars nicer than mine? Absolutely. Do I get the same feeling playing a stock instrument off the wall as I do playing one I built myself? Absolutely not.

    The very concept of a $5,000+ guitar just blows my mind. That's not to say that it's not worth that to somebody else, but once you take the plunge and build one for yourself, you realize just how little actually goes into a guitar. It's a relatively primitive instrument when you think about it. So the question for me becomes whether or not I'm willing to pay someone else $1,000's to assemble & finish one for me. For where I'm at right now, nope.
     
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  3. Musekatcher

    Musekatcher Friend of Leo's

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    Gibson is 5 times the size of Fender, and produce a fraction of what they did when guitars meant something - but I get your point, that there is money in guitar sales. There is money in the saxophone market too - close to 1B annual. Like guitars, that is a fraction of what it was during its boom as a sector portion of consumer spending (smaller slice of a bigger pie). Nobody cares if you play a guitar over any other instrument, and in fact, its considered a common gateway to more difficult instruments. Take a lesson from banjo pickers, accordion players, piano, musical saws, etc, and just enjoy something, even if it no longer impresses folks, or folks don't worship your skills, or kids aren't motivated to be like you and play a guitar.

    PS - I gig a banjo, saxophone and a telecaster, from my very extensive collection, all procured from the used-vintage market. The percent of my collection produced after 1980 is about 10%. After 2010 is about 1%. Oh, and guitar is my baseline instrument, and I know its a very expressive, difficult instrument to play well. But I'm in the obscure group I'm talking about.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019
  4. boris bubbanov

    boris bubbanov Tele Axpert Ad Free Member

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    I think the locations where the substantial money is, have simply changed.

    While we looked to Toronto for some shopping needs (from near Buffalo) in the 1960s I admit, now Toronto is a really major player. Where folks in markets like St. Louis and Kansas City used to snicker about Toronto, I wouldn't be surprised if Toronto is a bigger market than those 2 places combined.

    So, sales in some parts of the USA have fallen down, and the money (and the sales) have moved elsewhere.
     
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  5. Mjark

    Mjark Doctor of Teleocity Silver Supporter

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    I've been hearing this for some time. I have noticed some of the larger more common vintage amps like Twin Reverbs. are coming down in price no doubt because we can't pick them up anymore and they don't offer the features kids want.
     
  6. warrent

    warrent Friend of Leo's

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    Gibson is not 5 times the size of Fender. Gibson's best year in the sixties was 100,000 total units a number they didn't reach again until the 90's. But if you just take Les Paul models Gibson has sold more that 1.6 million guitars between 1986 and 2000. They sell more guitars now than they did in their heyday in the 60's. Fender sells more guitars than they used to. Guitars still sell, players still play and young people still play guitars, form bands and get record contracts.


    The entire brass instrument market in the USA last year was just under $300 million in unit sales they topped out at 266,000 versus 2,560,000 new guitars and another 1,700,000 ukuleles.
     
  7. Musekatcher

    Musekatcher Friend of Leo's

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    Gibson is north of 1.5B in sales. You must be looking at the guitar-only numbers.
    I thought you might find the sax-only numbers, and they are smaller than I estimated, but I was addressing all band instruments, estimated on the number of school bands and students in the US - that would be north of 1B.

    Anyway, we could continue to debate numbers, but the big picture clearly is, guitar isn't impressive anymore, it has gone the same boom and bust as all other fads. The trend in saxes is just ahead of the guitar, and an indicator of where guitar has already headed, and will continue. In 10-20 more years, saxes will be even less popular, as will guitar. Guitar is a shrinking percentage of consumer spending from its apex, agree?
     
  8. Jimclarke100

    Jimclarke100 Tele-Afflicted

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    Don’t know about guitar dying out - it’s focus has just shifted away from being a/the lead instrument. But it’s nevertheless alive and well as far as I can see - I’d say that about 50% of my 15 year old daughters friends a play of are learning guitar or bass and are trying to start bands....
     
  9. deytookerjaabs

    deytookerjaabs Friend of Leo's

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    AND, it could still be a "PAF" pickup if it has the Patent # sticker, you gotta look at the pickup. IIRC it's black wire that gives it away.
     
  10. Wally

    Wally Telefied Ad Free Member

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    Here is some info...


    http://www.guitarhq.com/paf.html

    On down the way there is an analysis of the post-1962 era. I need to pull the pickups up on my Es-345 and do some investigation. There is an outside it has pickups hat are PAF’s with Pat # on them.
     
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  11. deytookerjaabs

    deytookerjaabs Friend of Leo's

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    So, you folks are wrong.


    Just sayin...



    The market will fluctuate with winners/losers as always but the only thing crashing the guitar market is an actual crash and it will have to be international at that.




    Vintage: They're stashed. Private hands to private hands, the huge majority behind walls with central air. Good luck seeing those all go on ebay one day :rolleyes: I've seen how those collections move and the next millionaire simply snatches them up usually with little publicity. The actual amount "on market" is a fraction of the numbers built. They perform along side of "luxury goods." They could trend downward for a bit, last year was the first year in memory that vintage guitar index went down a bit while luxury goods went up. Yet, again, good luck with that silly prediction of them crashing.


    Cheapo stuff: The market is saturated here. Like seriously so, mind boggling. Yet, like kids bicycles new cheap guitars keep selling well every year for over a decade now. I can get Squier "affinity" strats $50 no problem at the pawn shops where they sit in piles yet GC still moves them $200 all day long.



    Modern expensive-ish guitars: They might be losers in the near future but "crash" is an extreme word to use. I hope they come down, lol. I'm talking about the type of guitars you see in small time collections, the guy with 20 PRS or R9's does tend to fit a certain age group. They're very unlikely to perform like the vintage market IMO.


    Mid priced stuff: Such a strong market here and I have no clue why, remember when a used guitar was guaranteed to be 50% of the out the door new price? There's a few with poor resale value but for the most part folks are still buying the mid priced stuff like hot cakes.


    Old quirky 70's/80's stuff: Sells pretty well for the most part, no idea why, but don't invest in any of it by any stretch. I made $1800 profit when I sold my '73 Tele Deluxe in 2004, I bought it in '98. Had I kept it and sold it today I might make an additional couple hundred which probably would pace it behind inflation, lol.



    Gigging and live music have nothing to do with selling guitars. Gigging has sucked since the end of the 90's and the guitars have BOOMED since the 90's. Kids will still play guitars en masse, less of them still playing all the other instruments. It's a big world with billions of people, billions is a lot.
     
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  12. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Telefied Ad Free Member

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    Patent numbers are what I look for. Best humbuckers I’ve ever heard exist on a completely stock 1966 ES 335. Just fantastic , completely alive , warm , still clear as a bell. Sublime...
     
  13. Wally

    Wally Telefied Ad Free Member

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    My ES-345 is from 1966....I bought it new in June, 1967. Since the hardware is gold, there is a better chance that the pickups are still PAF in reality...whether they have the patent number or not. This is noted in that linked info. I hVe never done the in-depth investigation. The T-tops, which are well-regraded, were introduced in 1965.
     
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  14. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Telefied Ad Free Member

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    Vast majority of vintage instruments are in ordinary peoples hands. But I’m also talking about ordinary vintage instruments such as Gretsch Corvettes old SG‘s 50s Martin’s 60s Martin’s etc. etc.

    The vast majority of them are in baby boomers possession. That’s all you need to know right there - that tells you everything that you need to know.

    All the surmising and extrapolation and confident predictions can be drawn from just that.

    The super high-end stuff? Yeah it’ll mostly just get shifted around and like I’ve said 400 times prewar flat tops are the only thing that have appreciated before the crash during the crash and after the crash. Not custom color fenders not all Les Pauls zero zip zilch. Only super old flat tops.

    Long story short? For the vast majority of all of it , the highest price ever paid on any individual model - is in the past.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2019
  15. deytookerjaabs

    deytookerjaabs Friend of Leo's

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    I started working in vintage guitars in the late 90's up until 2008 or so. It was then that our customer base for legit vintage was mainly dudes with gray hair. When the owner died around 2001 his sons inherited the shop, they sold most the collection of fancy pants guitars and believed, then, that since only old dudes bought the stuff it was going to crash any day now. But this was small potatoes...selling serious vintage guitars at that point.

    ..yeah.... not gonna happen.


    It's not a generation thing anymore. In fact, that torch was passed 10+ years ago IMO. It's a millionaire to billionaire thing now and there's how many millionaires in the United States alone?? It doesn't take many international millionaire/billionaire types to hoard basically the entirety of vintage guitars as they weren't produced in huge numbers.


    Guys will keep buying all those guitars not because they "grew up with them" but because they can and said instruments will always hold a bit of iconic value for coming generations.




    Oh, and the "vast majority" of vintage instruments were at Arlington Guitar Show & shops in the 80s and early 90's. Truckloads. Anyone that has followed that market knows whats up.


    There are very few blackguards left under anyone's bed...and chances are the legit ones have been hacked/refin'd/etc.
     
  16. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Telefied Ad Free Member

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    I started messing around in the vintage market almost before there was a vintage market - mid-80’s - who cares ?

    Prices averaged across the entirety of the vintage market will plummet.

    I say based on the interests/values/goals and likes of the potential “buyers” , there will only be a small number of alive people interested in the thousands and thousands of vintage instruments of the soon-dead to keep values up.

    Econ 101.

    I aced it - sleeping.

    Supply : soon way up.

    Demand : soon a fraction of what it once was .

    They don’t care.

    Only the vanity and ego of the older generations and all their anecdotes about the nephew of a neighbor who’s really into “the old stuff” says otherwise.

    And even if they did care, they could probably scrape together about $900 for a 1964 Stratocaster , so, if you want to do that deal , give them a couple months to scrape up the money between their college loan payment and their apartment and traveling to Bali for an Instagram shot and they’ll get that money right to you.

    But if you don’t want to do that deal , they know an identical stratocaster on craigslist called a - classic series? Yeah, that’s the same - right? To them it is .

    And its way cheaper.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2019
  17. deytookerjaabs

    deytookerjaabs Friend of Leo's

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    You've been saying this same spiel on this forum for how long?



    Can you give us a specific year or time frame for this vintage crash? I'm waiting!!





    Perhaps if you're so hip to the market you wouldn't make an obviously false statement like "vast majority of vintage guitars are in ordinary guys hands." I mean, that's so far removed from reality I'm not sure how you can make any argument further? And don't obfuscate, everyone knows what vintage guitars are in terms of the "index."


    That said, I know of a very few guys who still have a gem they bought back in the day, and year after year one of those guys eventually cashes in big time to the bigger fish in the game.
     
  18. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Telefied Ad Free Member

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    It’s already happening.

    Go look at the $200,000 - $225,000 59 LP Std (Of course, typical elderly, different price every day) on Elderly.

    The minimum that would’ve gone for a dozen years ago was 300 grand . I think it’d be closer to 350 or 375.

    But now it’s priced at that - and it still ain’t selling.

    Ordinary people = not hedge fund guys/not tech guys.
     
  19. deytookerjaabs

    deytookerjaabs Friend of Leo's

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    It's Elderly

    There's a reason stuff sits there. That Elderly guitar has been a "Great Deal" sitting for many months now with few experts chiming in...or at least, keeping their lips sealed.




    Meanwhile one of the more iconic bursts just sold for a pretty penny to a young mogul in China and it's rumored other Chinese are getting into the biz...uh oh.

    The biggest collection of bursts known, rumored 100-200 range, are owned by a guy who is about 50 years old and looks healthy enough to make it to 80+ years...that's another 30 years! He also owns the biggest collection of vintage Vox amps, a few hundred as well.

    Rumble seat Nashville went through at least 8 bursts in the past year total, all known 'bursts at solid prices. Some sat for a bit but all the ones I recall from last year are gone now!

    By all accounts from VGP & the VG mag guide the 'burst market last year and this year has been stable yet the prices...are indeed...crazy.

    The 'burst market isn't crashing from what I can see. Guitars with zero provenance though, like "one owner" no one heard of in the past guitars that just sit & sit...you need to wonder why.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2019
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  20. Kid Telecaster

    Kid Telecaster TDPRI Member

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    When I die they’re going to make a Viking longboat out of all my guitars and amps, put me on it, float the boat out on a lake then fire a flaming arrow into it and we will burn, ‘smoke on the water’ eerily piped over from the nearby trees.
    I never ever bought a guitar as an investment or thinking it would make me money. They were bought to be played and I wrote down their value to $0 the day I bought them.
     
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