Guitar and Amp Market Saturation Coming Soon

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by ArcticWhite, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. Chunkocaster

    Chunkocaster Poster Extraordinaire

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    I've been selling some of my gear on ebay over the past few months, 7 guitars so far and they all went for low prices at auction. Pedals and amps are not selling either unless they are dirt cheap. A few years ago it was easy to sell and for a decent price. My items were mostly hard to come by and vintage japan guitars so not something you can find easily yet there was still little interest.
     
  2. radiocaster

    radiocaster Poster Extraordinaire

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    People have been saying guitars will disappear since the 80s when synths became popular, some people were probably saying that in the 70s too.

    However, I fail to see the point of ridiculously expensive guitars, that's more likely to drop in price if they don't sell. Not only are most young people not interested in them, neither are a lot of older people. And ridiculously high prices are a relatively new phenomenon, since the 2000s. They had some guitars cost over $1000 in the 80s, but generally just 50s Les Pauls and strats, and a few Gibson hollow bodies. Not Gretsches (except for the occasional White Falcon, or not even that) or 50s Harmony or even Rickenbackers.
     
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  3. WireLine

    WireLine Tele-Afflicted

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    I’ve got 2 Fender amps (Twin and Bandmaster Reverb converted to Vibrolux) I’ve been trying to move over a year...offers have been insultingly low.

    Hyper inflated guitar values seem to be coming down pretty quick (for the most part), as those who actually play have discovered offshore and partsocasters are much better values. Investors are gonna do what they think will make money, not music.

    Of course, I’m old enough to remember when original brand new TS808s were being sold for $9.50 to clear shelves for something else. Now a beat battery cover or knob goes for 10 times that.

    It’s all relative
     
  4. Marc Morfei

    Marc Morfei Tele-Afflicted

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    Excellent post. The Asia observation is very astute. First they learn to make guitars, then they learn to play guitars, then they can afford to buy guitars. Think of cigarette companies, faced with a similar dwindling American market. Know what their long term business strategy is? China.
     
  5. bgmacaw

    bgmacaw Friend of Leo's

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    The collectables market has always been fickle. Could I interest you in some Beanie Babies or mid-century wall clocks?

    I think the overall guitar market will remain healthy although there will be ups and downs and changes in tastes (electric vs acoustic, etc). Trying to hang onto the golden age of the 60's to 70's isn't a winner for much longer but there are new buyers to be captured.

    I always say look at how many guitars you see showing up in the background of TV shows and commercials. They're there because they convey an aura of coolness on the characters or product. The guitar may not be played, but it's just hanging out, oozing coolness.
     
  6. beyer160

    beyer160 Friend of Leo's

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    That's what the accordion industry has been saying for the last 70 years, too.

    images.jpg
     
  7. Musekatcher

    Musekatcher Tele-Afflicted

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    Old, old subject. Yes, its been shown there are dozens of surplus guitars per picker. You can buy a new solid body delivered for $39, same parts and wood as many $200 guitars from MF. The rest is left to you as homework why that is.
     
  8. Musekatcher

    Musekatcher Tele-Afflicted

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    Same for banjos, saxophones, pianos - all the boom and bust favs from the past, where we have millions not being utilized in the aftermath.
     
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  9. blowtorch

    blowtorch Telefied Ad Free Member

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    Niche market= not so easy to find a buyer for
     
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  10. Alter

    Alter Tele-Meister

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    It's more like prices coming back to normal after the overinflation we saw during the last 10-15 years. Eventually it's just musicians that will stay interested in music gear, so prices will be ones that make sense to them.

    One thing to be noted about guitars though is the limited availability of certain kinds of wood these days. A lot of models and brands, they just don't make them like they used to.. :)

    But really, take a look at appraisals, asking prices, and then on selling prices on reverb, eBay, etc. That should give you an idea..
     
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  11. Chunkocaster

    Chunkocaster Poster Extraordinaire

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    You are probably right. I just presumed people interested in guitar just know what a 1990 burny firebird, 1982 Takamine EF360S etc is worth so would jump on them when listed $300 plus below value.
    On the other hand I sold a Strymon mobius easily for $100 bucks more than I paid for it 5 years ago.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2019
  12. Wrighty

    Wrighty Tele-Afflicted

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    Slightly off topic but........Fisher Price toys! They last for ever, our granddaughter is still playing with the wind up record player her Dad had 38 years or so ago. Still, the shops sell the stuff, a lot exactly the same as the originals. Where does it all go?
     
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  13. bgmacaw

    bgmacaw Friend of Leo's

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    Guitars have a wider appeal than these instruments for several reasons.

    First, they're easier for a beginner to play. Cowboy chords are simple for just about anyone to pick up and play. Most other instruments require a lot more work to get started.

    Most guitars have a ergonomic and beautiful design that appeals to people. That is one of the reasons why you see them used to decorate so often.

    The guitar has become a cultural icon for coolness in a way no other instrument has.

    The guitar is portable. You can haul it around and play it anywhere.

    You can sing and play guitar at the same time solo. This can't be done with wind instruments.

    I can't think of any other instruments that check all these boxes.
     
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  14. Whatizitman

    Whatizitman Friend of Leo's

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    Fender is doing a decent job reaching out to younger and more diverse markets. Gibson, not so much. We need to look no further than the recent Gibson video debacle to see how that's going.
     
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  15. G.Rotten

    G.Rotten Tele-Holic

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    I think it's already happening even without the upcoming collections. Used values are dropping steadily as there have been a ton of quality mid range guitars put into the market over the last 10 years. My collection keeps growing as I keep finding what I consider deals. Only maybe they aren't deals. Maybe that's just the prices these days. Happening more often than usual. Either way, it's a tricky situation for someone like me as I have a terrible addiction which has so far been curbed by most of what I like being too rich for my current financial status. Currently I'm at around 35 guitars, but with most being Mid ranged guitars, likely not a valuable guitarsonal.
     
  16. P Thought

    P Thought Poster Extraordinaire Silver Supporter

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    I remember my mom telling stories of her college days at Santa Barbara, when the '30s-vintage Rollses and Bentleys hit the used market at college-kid prices.

    While I was teaching there was a boy who came to my room every time there was time outside of class to play the electric guitar I kept in there. He was getting to be a pretty good player, and I know he'll be watching for the water to top the floodgates.






    Edit: I bought my mid-'80s Takamine electric guitar, my first electric, at the tippy-top of the market. I seem to have a knack for that. The e-Bay auctions for the same guitar were closing at nutsy prices, and I could have made money if I'd sold it right away. I came to prefer wider necks, so tried to sell it a couple times. Crickets. The boy I mentioned above likes it a lot, so maybe I'll give it to him. Or maybe it will be comfortable for me again after I get carpal-tunnel surgery. . . .
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2019
  17. thegeezer

    thegeezer Tele-Afflicted

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    We guitar players do have a bias about this, you know. We like playing guitar and making music.

    Many of us have done it for so long that it’s virtually part of our DNA. So, we’re unlikely to be objective about this.

    When I started playing, probably only 1 in 10 kids stayed at it into adulthood. But literally millions and millions gave it a shot. Things change. Interests change. Popular music changes. Not as many take it up anymore.

    Two million people live within 40 miles of me. Yes, there are some bands with young players but very few. The band I’m in is representative of 90% of the music scene. We are a typical gigging band. I’m 66 and my three band mates range from 53 to 57.

    Our audience? Generally 30 to 60 and the glow of phone screens at brew pubs generates as many lumens as our stage lights. We’re an Instagram moment. They’re on to the next place and someone else takes their table. Rinse and repeat.

    It’s different. @Mike Eskimo explained it best. Things change. My remaining pile of gear is dwindling but it will still be a push to get it down to where I want it with changing tastes and demographics.
     
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  18. jrblue

    jrblue Tele-Afflicted

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    Hardly anyone on this forum owns guitars that have intrinsic long-term collector value. Most of the posts describe fussbudget quests for personal "Holy Grail" guitars or obsessive tinkering and modding. None of that is rewarded in the general resale market -- actually, it's the opposite. Nobody wants your tweaked-out LP with the Historic Makeover job done to your persona specs... except you, of course. For most of us, who did not buy our guitars as investments, trade objects, etc., this is a non-issue. I bought, and buy, mine for me, for playing music. I'm pretty happy with that. And it's not like everyone's buying clarinets and saxes, either. Asia? I think that pretty much peaked in the previous decade. Japanese sellers are dumping guitars now too.
     
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  19. ifallalot

    ifallalot Tele-Afflicted

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    The young people (well, youngish like me, I can't speak for the next generation) will get into the geezer toys as the prices go back down to the level that the geezers acquired their toys in the first place. There's been stupid appreciation just in my lifetime, and I'm only 39. When I was a teen I could have bought any non-marquee muscle era car for cheap (think Malibu as opposed to SS, LeMans opposed to GTO, 6 banger Camaros and Mustangs, etc.) but now people want $20k for a LeMans! When these drop to more reasonable levels I'll be able to afford them, and the hobby will live on. This coincides with the point in life where I'm starting to make a lot more money.

    Same with guitars
     
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  20. Corvus

    Corvus TDPRI Member

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    I think the sentiment of this post is right. When was the last time you heard a hit record featuring a "real" guitarist! And, as someone who used to give lessons - learning guitar is just "too hard" for those used to having everything done for them or mesmerised by their mobile phones! For us oldies being a "guitarist" was a dream - I mean I always wanted to be Keith Richards but had to get a proper job instead! As for resale values - disappointing because almost everyone has got one and it seems even foetuses have probably got a Strat clone - you can't give them away.
    In spite of the magazine hype - almost all vintage treasures are in rich folk's collections plus we are really spoiled for just what is available today for affordable prices so owning a decent guitar is no longer a dream either. So why have I got twenty of the damn things? Because I'm, an addict and an addict is never really cured!
     
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