Guitar and Amp Market Saturation Coming Soon

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by ArcticWhite, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. ArcticWhite

    ArcticWhite Tele-Holic

    Posts:
    506
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2009
    Location:
    Portland Oregon
    Something I've been thinking about for a while.
    Guitar music is becoming less and less popular. Fewer kids are picking up the instrument. Plenty of guitars are being made still, but it's clear that the makers are panicking a little. And our collections continue to grow.

    But guitars last forever (and so do amplifiers.)
    The geezers (I'm halfway there) will all die off. Plenty of guys have pretty huge collections. The market is eventually going to be flooded with guitars and amps of all types, and values.

    Basic economic theory says prices are going to be dropping, and only the rarest, most valuable instruments will maintain.

    Just thinking aloud here.
     
  2. Cerb

    Cerb Tele-Meister

    Age:
    39
    Posts:
    168
    Joined:
    May 3, 2019
    Location:
    Sweden
    Yes, it's been a long time since I bought a new guitar or amp. Anything I want can be found used.
     
    rich815, Southpole, Owenmoney and 3 others like this.
  3. elihu

    elihu Poster Extraordinaire

    Posts:
    7,258
    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2009
    Location:
    Texas
    Man, I can hardly wait!

    (saving my money...)
     
    DekeDog, NewKid, BrandonIke and 7 others like this.
  4. ArcticWhite

    ArcticWhite Tele-Holic

    Posts:
    506
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2009
    Location:
    Portland Oregon
    I'm hoping to buy a '51 Broadcaster when they get down under a grand..
     
    Jamie_h, Kreepy, Mosstone and 13 others like this.
  5. Freeman Keller

    Freeman Keller Tele-Afflicted

    Age:
    74
    Posts:
    1,779
    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2018
    Location:
    Washington
    The commercially made vintage guitars in my meager collection (a couple of Martins, a couple of Dobros, even an old Yamaha) have all appreciated significantly and all of them are very saleable today. I keep thinking I should sell off a few but my kids expect them to come down to them.

    IMG_0184.JPG

    I have sold a couple of my old cars (including the bimmer in the picture) and again, its amazing how well they appreciated, not to mention all the fun they gave me over the years.

    I'm also going to predict that as tone woods become scarce the prices on these beautiful old guitars is going to go up even more.
     
    fos1, studio1087, rze99 and 7 others like this.
  6. ClashCityTele

    ClashCityTele Tele-Holic

    Age:
    57
    Posts:
    728
    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2018
    Location:
    Washington, UK
    Not sure about guitar music dying. It's alive & kicking in my part of the World.

    However, I agree about the longevity of guitars.
    Guitar companies complain about sales dropping, but there are still guitars around from 1950.
    They have yet to develop inbuilt obsolescence for guitars.

    Guitar sales may be as healthy as ever, but not new guitars. Even a new, good quality gigable guitar can be had for £/$/€200.
    There's nothing much can wear out on a guitar that can't be fixed.
    My next guitar will be used. No point in paying full price.
     
  7. thegeezer

    thegeezer Tele-Afflicted

    Age:
    66
    Posts:
    1,145
    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Location:
    West Michigan
    Yup. We geezers could see this coming. Some of us have been selling off things of value for a while now and only keeping what we use.

    Besides music related stuff, I got out of vintage airplanes a few years back. Same reason. Everywhere I went the pilots were all old. I sold out while there were still buyers.

    The real crush of sales of geezer toys is still a few years away. Then, the real pricing pressure will become apparent. Music gear, vintage cars, all sorts of nostalgic stuff.

    You can’t sell old guys’ toys to young guys.

    Oh, and don’t forget what inflation does. Price appreciation? Maybe on really, really desirable items. My older guitars are worth 5 to 8 times what I paid for them. Inflation adjusted? I’m about even.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
    nojazzhere and Flakey like this.
  8. jfgesquire

    jfgesquire Tele-Meister

    Age:
    52
    Posts:
    275
    Joined:
    May 23, 2018
    Location:
    Lake View
    As an Estate attorney I can tell you that we're all delusional.

    Even 70's Strats and Teles are going for stupid money. Retirees are looking for guitars they couldn't afford as a kid and are over paying.

    When they die all the distributees will care about is the money.

    Something may APPRAISE at $5,000, but if there's a flooded market, good luck getting that price.

    Value goes up when they are NOT in circulation.

    Sent from my LG-H932 using Tapatalk
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  9. Deeve

    Deeve Friend of Leo's Silver Supporter

    Posts:
    3,528
    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2009
    Location:
    Ballard
    Something tells me the partcasters I use can't fall much further in value.

    The Norlin LP - well, I'm leaving that to my daughter or wife to sort out as executor of the estate (good luck, honey).
    The Trini Lopez, however - what's to be done w/ a commercial turkey like that?
    It's a perfectly fine instrument, and has successfully kept me from paying stupid money for "real" 335, but who is gonna actually pay something for it?
    Strip out the PAFs and sell them?

    Not Wondering At All about the amps - they're all boat anchors, AFAICT
     
  10. bcorig

    bcorig Tele-Afflicted Silver Supporter

    Posts:
    1,376
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2018
    Location:
    Chino Hills CA
    I’ll be gone and my equipment will be somebody else’s problem.
    Never bought any of this stuff with resale or appreciation in mind.
    Just like to play them.
    My mom left me a 280S no one wanted it. No market.
     
  11. WetBandit

    WetBandit Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    3,113
    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2016
    Location:
    Somewhere
    God willing I'll be here ready with an open wallet...
     
    Obsessed, NewKid, bftfender and 3 others like this.
  12. boredguy6060

    boredguy6060 Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    4,710
    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2012
    Location:
    Sou Cal
    I read a while back that Guitar Center owns more guitars that there are guitar players world wide.
    They are going into bankruptcy and the market will be flooded while their stock is liquidated.
    We heard of this impending Tsunami for several years now without any tangible signs of it happening, but perhaps it will.
    If that were to actually happen as predicted, the market would be saturated for years, no resale value on anything.
    Sell now while you can. :twisted::cool:
     
    Binx and Boomhauer like this.
  13. Milspec

    Milspec Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    3,852
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2016
    Location:
    Nebraska
    I don't know if I agree with that conclusion. As a letter carrier, I have delivered a ton of guitar / amp parts and accessories over the past year alone. Some days it seems like everybody is in the hobby.
     
    bftfender and nojazzhere like this.
  14. Nickfl

    Nickfl Tele-Afflicted

    Posts:
    1,562
    Joined:
    May 24, 2016
    Location:
    Florida
    I been saying this for a while. I'd guess I'm a good 20 years younger than the average member on this forum, and I've been making plans for when the amp market crashes.

    When the price for tweed bassman (plural bassmen?) drops to 10 for $1 I'm going to sleep on a giant pile of them :lol:
     
  15. 1300 E Valencia

    1300 E Valencia Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    2,245
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Location:
    Fullerton CA
    Original date of post: July 17th, 1975.
     
  16. Barncaster

    Barncaster Doctor of Teleocity

    Posts:
    10,887
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2010
    Location:
    Northern California
    All it will take is a bit of marketing steering of guitar based popular music and the kids will be running to the stores again. All is far from lost.
     
    aerhed, Alter and Asmith like this.
  17. Mike Eskimo

    Mike Eskimo Doctor of Teleocity Ad Free Member

    Posts:
    19,378
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2008
    Location:
    Detroit

    People have made multi million dollar deals on Wall Street based on less information than what is out there about the upcoming , and in some cases on going , collectibles crash.

    There are a bunch of different factors at play but the biggest one is there will not be even a fraction of the people even interested in any of this stuff to buy it all and keep values up.

    There’s soooooo much ego involved. On the part of the boomer vintage collectibles owners .

    “Well of course young kids are going to be just as interested in what we were into and they’ll be clamoring to buy our stuff”.

    Hell no.

    For every anecdote you have about a cool nephew that really wants your 57 Chevy there’s 1000 kids that would rather have a tuner Japanese car no older than 20 years .

    And Guitar and Amp Stuff is no different than other aspects of vintage collectibles .

    I have a buddy that has been into high-end movie collectibles including the movies themselves for years.

    In the last five years he has been able to purchase basically anything he ever dreamed of at prices that he never thought would go so low.

    He has to rotate his collection because he doesn’t have the wall space for all the rare original posters he has now. Original mint full color lobby poster - gigantic - for creature from the Black Lagoon and some other ultra rare horror ones. Estate sales all.

    Certain portions of the vintage instruments market will stay strong longer than others but - it will all fall.

    And a ton of it will go to Asia.


    Lastly, the very act of collecting anything is so antithetical to younger generations .

    They don’t even want to own houses and in many cases - cars. They don’t want To work at a job for very long.

    Experiences - not things.

    Couple that with crushing student debt and that’s a huuuuge segment of society that would barely pull over if they saw a Martin headstock sticking out of a garbage can...
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  18. thegeezer

    thegeezer Tele-Afflicted

    Age:
    66
    Posts:
    1,145
    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Location:
    West Michigan
  19. strat a various

    strat a various Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    3,273
    Joined:
    May 9, 2008
    Location:
    Texas
    Guitar Center would saw most of those guitars in half and toss 'em in the dumpster if it would make a bigger profit in the end. Stuff like that happens all the time in the manufacturing business. Supply and demand. They control the (new) supply to a large degree.
     
    Flat6Driver and boredguy6060 like this.
  20. Uncle Daddy

    Uncle Daddy Tele-Holic

    Posts:
    906
    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2015
    Location:
    Maldon, England
    The market is saturated, and the makers have to keep making to stay alive. You'd think the big manufacturers would spend a little to develop new interest in the youth market. Sponsorship for up and coming artists; battle of the bands, rehearsal spaces, scholarships for jobs in the custom shop, and dare I say it, encouraging young women to take it up. Blooze daddies will not keep a market afloat for ever.

    The downside? Young people tend not to want to sit in a bar or venue much now. They got an app for that.
     
    Muinarc and hellopike like this.
IMPORTANT: Treat everyone here with respect, no matter how difficult!
No sex, drug, political, religion or hate discussion permitted here.


  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.