Glut of Genuine Telecasters prior 2029?

Discussion in 'Telecaster Discussion Forum' started by derekwarner, Dec 2, 2019.

  1. derekwarner

    derekwarner Tele-Meister

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    As learned Folks say, with statistics, there is just a whole lot more lies implied

    So if we believe ......

    1. there are 24,456 pre CBS Telecasters still in existence
    2. 72% of these are owned by members here who are over 70 years of age
    3. so apart from hard drug or Alcohol abuse, 43% of the members listed above will not see 80 years of age
    4. so 24,456 x 0.72 = 17,608 x 0.43 = 7,571 pre CBS Telecasters will be available on the market between now and 2029

    Does this not want you to all jump up & down that you might get a bargain, or will that mean that this will be an avenue for dubious Crooks to forge the credentials of the genuine 7,571 to 15142 & double their money?

    Derek
     
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  2. rze99

    rze99 Poster Extraordinaire

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    Plenty will be gifted / passed on via wills before they hit the market
     
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  3. rickthescot

    rickthescot Tele-Holic

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    What you may not have considered is a certain percentage have relatives the either: 1) love guitars and will cherish these fine instruments giving them the care they deserve and will not sell them 2) know the value and will ask way over market 3) are of the crack head Jerry Springer mentality and will sell them immediately for whatever they can get for them.
     
  4. muchxs

    muchxs Doctor of Teleocity

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    Wow. And I thought I was cynical.

    My girlfriend is a statistician. She has a high powered degree in Biostatistics and Epidemiology from the little ivy draped college down the road.

    She has a t shirt that says "67% of statistics are made up in the moment to prove a point."

    "Every experiment is designed to get exactly the results it gets."


    How 'bout the 67% of the pre- CBS Telecasters that are already worn out and modified beyond recognition?

    We should be grateful there are people who make new Telecasters that look and feel exactly like the old ones. That is, like the old ones with compound radius fingerboards with perfect medium jumbo frets.

    :D :D :D
     
  5. Dan German

    Dan German Poster Extraordinaire Silver Supporter

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    Not cynical enough for me. I personally believe that, by 2029, there will be more pre-CBS Telecasters than there are today, assuming prices stay above the cost of parts and relic-ing supplies.
     
  6. boris bubbanov

    boris bubbanov Tele Axpert Ad Free Member

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    By 2029, some worm will have evolved to colonize all these old, tobacco and gin soaked guitars, and they will all be eaten through by then.

    And all we will have is a glut of worms.

    +

    What a great name for a band: Glut of Worms.

    Ah. Probably already taken.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
  7. Old Deaf Roadie

    Old Deaf Roadie Tele-Afflicted Silver Supporter

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    The likelyhood I will have opportunity for any of those instruments is nil, so I will just stick with what has been working for me.
     
  8. arlum

    arlum Tele-Meister Gold Supporter

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    This is a wonderful post. Do you not have a day job? I don't know where you got the stats but, because I'm a trusting soul I'll take your word. It's nice to see someone apply their time to statistics about vintage electric guitars. This type of in depth research would rob most modern folks of their time for cell phones, Facebook, twitter, other stupid stuff I don't understand, gaming, some type of Instant Grams, etc..
     
  9. alnico357

    alnico357 Tele-Holic

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    I once bought a 1966 Deluxe Reverb for $70, so the chance of buying a pre-CBS Telecaster at an equally low price is not zero, but it is the only deal I'd take because I am not interested in pre-CBS Telecasters to any large degree.
     
  10. Just Dropped In

    Just Dropped In Tele-Meister

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    "In 10 years hence, guitars will be apps...downloaded for free of course!"—Nostradamus
     
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  11. Marc Morfei

    Marc Morfei Tele-Afflicted

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    How was it determined there are 24,456 pre-CBS Telecasters still in existence?
    That's an awfully specific number. I'm dubious.

    But the general point is valid. A lot of guitars are owned by older people. At some point supply will exceed demand, and you would expect the used market to be glutted, and prices to come down. But this presumes a good number of those old guitars find their way into the market. I'm guessing when grandpa dies, the grandkids generally won't know what to do with that old guitar, or care enough to figure it out. I'm guessing more will end up in flea markets, pawn shops, and yard sales (or even thrown out) than will end up on Reverb.
     
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  12. john_cribbin

    john_cribbin Tele-Afflicted

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    Of the 1436 necks signed by Tadeo Gomez, only 3753 are still known to exist.
     
  13. muchxs

    muchxs Doctor of Teleocity

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    Got a '64 Super Reverb for five bucks.

    It was rough.

    I paid $250 for my "found in a ditch" '67 Super Reverb. I didn't find it in a ditch. I found it in a Boston basement. It was so rough I parted it.


    Thing is... none of this stuff is rare. It was all mass produced in quantity. What's rare is to find a deal that's not priced at top dollar according to someone's price guide or finding something that hasn't been dragged through the mud. Repeatedly. Like my Buffalo Bayou Musicmaster Bass Amp.
     
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  14. Rufustelestrats

    Rufustelestrats Tele-Holic

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    @Marc Morfei I think his number was derived from the purported number of guitars produced by Fender by year added together. The other parts are pure conjecture held together with bubble gum and imagination.
     
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  15. teletimetx

    teletimetx Doctor of Teleocity

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    Excellent stories! My double-E studio engineer friend is working on a SF Twin that mostly survived a garage fire. We like to say it's been "black-faced"...:)
     
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  16. Sax-son

    Sax-son Tele-Meister

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    Back when I first started playing, you were lucky to own 1 or maybe 2 decent guitars. Now, players own over twenty an beyond. So these days have no relationship as it pertains to how many guitars are out there somewhere. If they have too many, they may purge a few here and there, but back to buying different gear in no time. There never seems to be any end to it. This is the golden age of guitar building in my opinion.

    The only thing that needs to be worried about is that people keep jamming. There needs to be new guitar hero's emerge in order to keep the party going.
     
  17. schmee

    schmee Poster Extraordinaire Silver Supporter

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    I think generally there will be a ton of vintage amps, guitars on the market. Not everyone has relatives that play. And it's getting more and more that way, because music today is not guitar oriented as much as it used to be. The Trumpet and Clarinet were hugely popular instruments for a long time. WWll big band era etc. You don't even see them around anymore.
     
  18. Obsessed

    Obsessed Telefied Ad Free Member

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    The Silver Tsunami. It is just about to happen. Most of us old farts won't be able to reap the benefits, but the younger players are going to have their pick of used gear for pennies to the dollar when the flood of dying boomers' guitars become available.

    Or that asteroid puts us out of our misery.:twisted::lol:
     
  19. muchxs

    muchxs Doctor of Teleocity

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    (As the story goes) Around 1980 Southworth Guitars was making trips down to Nashville and buying old Fender guitars. Southworth kept the pick of the litter. Some of the rest went to We Buy Guitars in NYC. They were reincarnated as custom color Fenders especially Stratocasters. They were shot in DuPont Duco. 1980 makes them old enough you can't tell the difference, now. There are surely more custom color Strats than there ever were.

    I used to go down there on my lunch hour, gaze in the window and drool a puddle. Prices started at a grand. I paid $300 for my sunburst '66 right around that time. A grand seemed like a lot.


    Nashville had a "Get a job, get a haircut." attitude at the time. Stratocasters were hippy guitars and Telecasters were hillbilly guitars. What you wanted was a shiny new Gretsch.
     
  20. PC_Hater

    PC_Hater Tele-Meister

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    Me and my biker mates have been waiting for the prices of 'Classic' bikes to drop as the old fools that own them die.
    It is not happening!
    And my guess is 'Classic' guitar prices won't drop either!
    More fakes? Certainly.
    Watch out if you want a BSA Gold Star or Rocket God Star - check the engine and frame numbers carefully.
    And check that old Fender you simply must have carefully too.
     
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