Gear demand and prices

Discussion in 'Bad Dog Cafe' started by Minivan Megafun, May 7, 2021.

  1. Minivan Megafun

    Minivan Megafun Tele-Afflicted Gold Supporter

    Posts:
    1,190
    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2013
    Location:
    Manitoba
    "There's going to be a ton of used gear flood the market in 6-12 months when all the people who bought guitars during covid quit after we go back to normal."

    I think we've all heard some variation of this on pretty much all the gear forums. The theory being that music gear demand has been so explosively high due to new players entering the market as they're using the down time to take up a hew hobby. This year, possibly next, when everyone gets busy with life again, a good number of them will resell their gear because playing an instrument didn't stick. Ok, solid premise. But I don't really see this as the driver for overall demand. Sure, in the entry level yes. But are new players the ones out there buying $2000+ guitars and amps? I could see some influx of used gear at some point but what exactly is it all going to be? A bunch of Squiers and Player Series guitars and Mustang amps?

    So in short, I don't think there's going to be a flood of premium gear on the market that's going to drive prices back down. I think we're all going to be disappointed when the recent pricing inflation sticks and this is just what things cost now.
     
    Fretting out and nojazzhere like this.
  2. loopfinding

    loopfinding Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    2,343
    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2011
    Location:
    europe endless
    i think a lot of people in all sectors spent recklessly out of boredom and i think when the full economic effects of the last year finally are felt, at least in the gear realm (since it's actually resellable) there's going to be a lot of people dumping what they probably shouldn't have bought. i mean, on the dire end, there were 30-40 million people potentially facing eviction in the US last year. what's going to happen when the brakes are taken off of things like that? we are still very much in limbo. check back in a year or two.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2021
  3. imwjl

    imwjl Poster Extraordinaire

    Posts:
    9,719
    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2007
    Location:
    My mom's basement.
    I'll say it depends upon what economy you're in and your own skills. The past year plus has not been such a swing for many.

    Sports gear has been in demand but within that there are some sports or activities that haven't fallen of the cliff in waves like others. A niche like Harley Davidson might not be so lucky. They've got their base on the way to the grave and younger people less able to afford them.

    If many who took up music in this time are skewed towards well rounded and sharper people who like challenges it might drop off the cliff like many fads.
     
  4. radiocaster

    radiocaster Poster Extraordinaire

    Posts:
    8,609
    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2015
    Location:
    europe
    I think there's going to be a lot of gear on the market, people aren't going to quit playing, but it seems a lot of people like to change their guitars as often as their underwear. Unless you haven't been reading the posts on guitar forums.
     
    Octorfunk likes this.
  5. nojazzhere

    nojazzhere Doctor of Teleocity

    Age:
    69
    Posts:
    14,780
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2017
    Location:
    Foat Wuth, Texas
    I think that's true.....
    Plus, I hear Guitar Center is going out of business.
    Double whammy! ;););)
     
    Fretting out likes this.
  6. jdl57

    jdl57 TDPRI Member

    Age:
    64
    Posts:
    8
    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2021
    Location:
    Cheyenne, WY
    I think your observation is correct on prices, but we need to put it in perspective. I bought a Broadcaster reissue this year, never having owned any solid body Fender, I do have a Fender D'Aquisto archtop. The Broadcaster was considered expensive at $2,000, but the original Broadcaster was 179.95 in 1950. The case was an additional $39.95. Plug that into an inflation calculator and you get $2,416.87. Guitars have always cost this much. The difference is we have been spoiled by high quality entry level instruments. I started playing in 1965. Back then entry level guitars were horrible. On the other end of the spectrum, we have master builders who assemble a guitar designed to be assembled by high school dropouts, put on a beautiful finish and then scrape half of it off and charge you $5,000 for the privilege.

    I did not buy my Broadcaster (Broady?) on a whim, I had been wanting a Tele for a while and this model, along with it's limited availability is what pushed me over the edge. The smart thing to do would have been to buy a MIM version, but I absolutely love this thing, especially the fat neck.
     
    Fretting out likes this.
  7. sax4blues

    sax4blues Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    4,949
    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2006
    Location:
    Colorado Springs, CO
    When I was 19 I bought my first electric guitar, Hohner Les Paul. I learned very quickly that I didn’t enjoy the effort to learn and in a few months it went in a closet.

    That guitar stayed in the closet for 20 years before I tried again and this time I stuck with it.

    Closets, basements, garages are full of gear, snow skis, water skis, golf clubs, pool tables, etc. I don’t see why people will be so motivated to sell another recreational item that barely takes any space and provides the feeling that “I could do that some day”.
     
  8. fasteddie42

    fasteddie42 Tele-Afflicted

    Age:
    31
    Posts:
    1,496
    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Location:
    Tip of the Mitt
    IDK man.... I feel like a had a really good read on the used markets before covid.

    A LOT of gear that I always kept an eye on with the intention of buying down the line have skyrocketed price.

    I have no idea what's going on now, up is down and left is right. I'm basically done with used gear until this whole thing levels out.
     
    Minivan Megafun likes this.
  9. 1 21 gigawatts

    1 21 gigawatts Tele-Afflicted

    Age:
    47
    Posts:
    1,015
    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2020
    Location:
    Florida
    I don't think that it is the people that have been negatively impacted by the situation of last year that is driving the current market. Guitars are a luxury item unless you are in the small % that actually makes a living with one.

    People whose jobs simply shifted to home found themselves with a lot more time at home and a lot less expenses (commute, lunches, etc). For me, the money that I am saving on gas, tolls, and lunches has more than funded my new guitar hobby. On top of that, the government keeps sending me stimulus checks that I don't need. I have yet to turn one of these into a new Gibson, but the thought has certainly crossed my mind.

    I'd love to see a flood of used guitars hit the market, but it still seems to be going the other way. Inventory continues to be low and prices keep rising. Inflation is occuring on everything right now, and I don't see it ending anytime soon.
     
  10. Killing Floor

    Killing Floor Friend of Leo's

    Posts:
    2,758
    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2021
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    There will be a lot of Chase Bliss pedals on Reverb for $75 in a couple years.
     
IMPORTANT: Treat everyone here with respect, no matter how difficult!
No sex, drug, political, religion or hate discussion permitted here.