Do you think second-hand gear prices will ever come back down?

[jvin248]

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Prices will come down due to players unloading gear cheap to get cash as the economy situation reveals the unraveling.

However, inflation pace that has set in, and will continue to run hot and ever higher, will plaster over any demand/supply downward pressures.

So gear prices will continue to rise but at a much slower pace than inflation.

With the tax hits (1099s on gear sales), shipping cost increases, and platform fee increases (Reverb, ebay, Paypal/etc), the gear flipping market is over. Most players will resort to swapping gear if they want something 'new'. Since many players have afforded new gear purchases by selling old gear, maybe selling off six cheap guitars to buy their one 'dream guitar', that will all stop. Gear retailers and factories will be crushed.

.

 

[Marc Morfei]

All I know is I want to cry when I think of the prices I sold things for just a few years ago, compared to what they are selling for now.

There is one guitar that I bought used a few years ago for $400. Sold it some time later for about the same amount. Recent "sold" prices on Reverb are all in the $500-600 range. There are 3 or 4 current listings for it right now, all between $800-1,200. WT*?

 

[cowie86]

Because lower = older (I know...) and older = better (I KNOWWW)

This is exactly what I'm talking about. I could understand it 10+ years ago when people used to say one version of a boutique pedal sounded better than another because there'd been a re-design or something, but now it's like anything that's not being made any more has inherited magical tonal properties. I remember when Epiphone "Custom Shop" made a Chinese LP Jr in '07ish and at the time it was reviewed as a quite good value entry guitar. Now I keep seeing them on eBay as "far better than anything Epiphone could produce today, easily on par with Gibson".

Surely things have to be scarce and good to grow in price?

 

[SixStringSlinger]

This is exactly what I'm talking about. I could understand it 10+ years ago when people used to say one version of a boutique pedal sounded better than another because there'd been a re-design or something, but now it's like anything that's not being made any more has inherited magical tonal properties. I remember when Epiphone "Custom Shop" made a Chinese LP Jr in '07ish and at the time it was reviewed as a quite good value entry guitar. Now I keep seeing them on eBay as "far better than anything Epiphone could produce today, easily on par with Gibson".

Surely things have to be scarce and good to grow in price?

Not to be glib, a smartass or a broken record, but the only thing that needs to happen for something to go up in price is for people to pay higher prices for it. Of course that itself can involve at least the idea (if not the fact) of something being scarce and/or good, but ultimately someone paying the price is primary, and their reasons why are a far, far second place. Sellers will try to decipher and exploit these as its in their interest to do so, but it's far from a science.

Also keep in mind that it's in the seller's interest to "oversell" their item, and that their asking price has no real bearing on the actual selling price aside from as a starting point for negotiation.

 

[Wildeman]

I've seen guitars that i was watching on Reverb at $1200.00, that weren't selling, increase in price to $2200.00! interesting strategy......i stopped watching.

 

[cowie86]

Not to be glib, a smartass or a broken record, but the only thing that needs to happen for something to go up in price is for people to pay higher prices for it. Of course that itself can involve at least the idea (if not the fact) of something being scarce and/or good, but ultimately someone paying the price is primary, and their reasons why are a far, far second place. Sellers will try to decipher and exploit these as its in their interest to do so, but it's far from a science.

Also keep in mind that it's in the seller's interest to "oversell" their item, and that their asking price has no real bearing on the actual selling price aside from as a starting point for negotiation.

Yeah I totally get what you mean. If people generally are willing to pay $x,xxx for something then that's what it's worth in the marketplace. I think the problem is that back in the day you might get someone who really wanted something and was willing to pay over the odds for it and that was fine, the buyer got what they wanted and the seller got lucky and shifted his gear for a bit more than what he might have usually. But nowadays with the internet and Reverb/eBay's sold prices, one person gets a few extra $$$ for something and then everyone else who has the item is convinced that's what everyone in the market should be paying for it.

 

[68tele]

I wouldn't be looking on Reverb for deals. Anyone posting there 'knows' they should price higher. Stick to Craigslist/Facebook and POUNCE when u spot a deal.

 

[teletail]

I guarantee it - they'll come back down as soon as I try to sell something!

 

[Lonn]

When I said Mexican fenders don’t appreciate in value I meant over their original selling price. Of course used prices have gone up but I’m never going to pay more for a MIM Fender than it cost brand new.

 

[sax4blues]

Prices will come down due to players unloading gear cheap to get cash as the economy situation reveals the unraveling.

If the general economic situation has reached a point where selling a guitar purchased on a whim during Covid-19 will impact the financial survival of a significant portion of those new players, we’re all going to be in a heap of trouble.

 

[String Tree]

Prices will remain High until I decide to sell something.
At that moment, prices will drop like a Rock.
YEP!!!

 

[sax4blues]

Do we expect a similar flood of bicycles for sale in two years? Covid-19 bicycle sales have been 10x average since the first lockdown and manufacturing still can’t keep up. Surely many of those are now sitting in the garage gathering dust.

Or will those by chance just sit at the buyers home for the next 30 years like my Schwinn Varsity?

 

[rze99]

Here to stay. The era of cheap places to manufacture has gone.

 

[Toto'sDad]

Cheap is never going to happen again. The forces that control how much things cost are completely out of control. If things come down, you still won't be able to afford them then, because it will be because the bottom fell out, and you still won't have the money to pay the asking price.

 

[Dostradamas]

It's a brave new world.
Things will change but not in past predictable ways.

A new world economy has come with the new world order.

We have never been here as a species or society.

Trial and error is our future for at least a couple generations

 

[sax4blues]

What general assumptions are we making about the Covid-19 impulse purchases which will flood the used market in two years?

Did new players buy $700 range/$1200 range/$2000+range? My guess is first time impulse buyer is gravitate to $700, I did.

If used market is flooded with $700 priced used at $300 are you jumping on those $300? I’m not.

 

[FollowMyHead]

It's rough trade out there. The internet changed the used market permanently. Everyone knows what everything is going for and what it's "worth" (ie the price people are verifiably willing to pay) and they don't want to miss out on any of that money. It's rare to find that "holy crap" deal anymore. The used prices will pretty much always follow used prices for contemporary gear.

 

[Marc Morfei]

Trial and error is our future for at least a couple generations

If we make it that long.

 

[41144]

Just to reinforce the point about Global supply chains regarding new equipment.
I really want to compare and contrast the Boss RC-10R, Digitech Trio+ and Nux JTC Pro as a board mounted drum and looper.
No local stores have them all in and, for example, the few stores that have the Trio+ are currently quoting prices of £260-£290, whereas before the New Year a typical price was £160-£180.
Now we have to accept that shipping costs have gone up but .... c. 40%!!!
Needless to say used prices are now approaching the 'new' price of just 3 months ago!

 

[northernguitar]

Do we expect a similar flood of bicycles for sale in two years? Covid-19 bicycle sales have been 10x average since the first lockdown and manufacturing still can’t keep up. Surely many of those are now sitting in the garage gathering dust.

Or will those by chance just sit at the buyers home for the next 30 years like my Schwinn Varsity?

I don't think so. Riding a bike, while dedication is needed, will always be looked at as 'something I know I could do'.

Learning the guitar, or any other instrument, requires a different kind of commitment.