Do you think second-hand gear prices will ever come back down?

[cowie86]

Edit: I'm mostly thinking of discontinued or old models. It seems like anything that's not being made any more is going on ebay and Reverb as "increasingly hard to find", "future collector's item", "much better than the current model". I've seen several limited run Chinese made Epiphones up there recently for upwards of $1,000/£1,000. And pedals no one has really mentioned in 5 or 6 years are now advertised as "very low serial number" or "part of first run".

I've been playing guitar for about 15 years (not long compared to most of you, I know) but I've never seen anything like this. Obviously the situation with Klons, KTRs and DMM has shifted up a gear, but it seems like everyone on Reverb and eBay is now convinced everything they have is worth twice what it was two years ago.

In your experience, does the second-hand gear market ever come back down or does it generally move in one direction?

 

[Maguchi]

Eventually. There have been record high sales of guitars amps and pedals the last couple of years. Eventually, who knows how long, all that product should start to make it onto the used market. I don't believe everyone who bought music gear in the last couple years are hoarders like us.

 

[Skyhook]

It really is "crazy season" right now. Used gear should generally be at about 50-70% of new depending on condition unless
we're talking about some excessively rare and over hyped pedal(Klon Centaur) or some pedal that John Mayer said rules
and all of a sudden it's valuable because everyone on Reverb lost their marbles(Marshall Blues Breaker).
New gear right now is crazy-priced due to the state of the world caused by the great whatsit.
When the world returns to normal in a few years prices will go down and so will the price of used gear.
Can't have non-rare used gear costing more than new, now can we?

 

[Killing Floor]

The thing that shall not be named has driven demand sky high for musical instruments and accessories. And production and distribution is throttled. So now is the time to sell your pedals for 500% list price.

 

[boxocrap]

I've been playing guitar for about 15 years (not long compared to most of you, I know) but I've never seen anything like this. Obviously the situation with Klons, KTRs and DMM has shifted up a gear, but it seems like everyone on Reverb and eBay is now convinced everything they have is worth twice what it was two years ago.

In your experience, does the second-hand gear market ever come back down or does it generally move in one direction?

when it all gets flooded with stuff..saturated.

 

[willietheweirdo]

Depends. You might also see 10,000 of the same item for sale; if someone wants to sell theirs first they gotta put it up pretty cheap!

 

[schmee]

Yes. Especially with all the new reporting etc on selling on Ebay , Reverb etc

 

[JL_LI]

Used gear prices will always track new gear prices at a 25% to 30% differential with one exception. If new gear quality slips, used gear value rises as it becomes more desirable than new. Collectible gear is different with prices governed by scarcity and desirability.

 

[backporchmusic]

Once the new stuff is available, the used prices will go back down. Right now, you can't buy the new guitar you want because of low production numbers/speed, they can't make enough to keep them in stock.

So used prices are nearing new ones. This should slow down in the long term.

 

[drmordo]

IMO they have already come down a good bit. for example, a year ago used EVH Wolfgangs were selling for more than the new price. Now they are selling for 2/3 of the new price which is about right IMO.

What are you seeing that is so high?

 

[Vibroluxer]

I read on another forum from a very credible source that Fender has been raising prices and is going to do it again soon. He sells mainly new Fender gear.

If that's the case then used prices will only go higher as well.

 

[BelairPlayer]

Inflation is here for the foreseeable future. Fed has already predicted three increases in interest this year. Things are getting very expensive. Some people holding extra gear will suddenly see piles of cash as they struggle to pay for necessities. Soon enough there will be a glut of barely used gear on the market. Soon enough it will be a buyer’s market.

 

[studio1087]

The thing that shall not be named has driven demand sky high for musical instruments and accessories. And production and distribution is throttled. So now is the time to sell your pedals for 500% list price.

Agreed. Lots of folks staying home and enjoying hobbies or trying new things. Gotta wonder how many $250 acoustic guitars have been sold to new players in the last 18 months. I wonder if hobby stores have had business increases. I personally know 4 people who took up bread making via youtube videos and they've gotten good at it. We can't watch TV all the time. (-:

 

[getbent]

newton is more than a cookie.

I've been finding good deals this fall and winter... gotta hunt.

 

[Greggorios]

IMHO, Everything is relative. I believe there's really 2 separate but connected issues at play that will determine pricing:

Used gear prices in relation to new prices: The price ratio of new to used gear should adjust back to a more reasonable balance once the supply of finished goods, components, materials etc. for new gear catches up to demand.

Prices of everything new (gear, raw goods, labor, energy, real estate, costs of borrowing etc.): Will depend on macro-economic factors and stability that have been chaotic during the dilemma of the past 2 years. The markets for used stuff (gear, cars, real estate, etc.) "should" adjust proportionately to where ever the prices of "new stuff" ends up once supply and demand becomes less lopsided.

 

[cowie86]

IMO they have already come down a good bit. for example, a year ago used EVH Wolfgangs were selling for more than the new price. Now they are selling for 2/3 of the new price which is about right IMO.

What are you seeing that is so high?

Thanks for your reply! Latest ones for me have been the Epiphone Sorrento that they made in 2012, Chinese made hollow bodies aren't usually hot items and you used to be able to pick them up for about £400-500. Someone offered me one this week for £1,500 and there's another on ebay for the same price.

Likewise the Fender Lite Ash Telecaster - they were around for a while in the early 2000s, basically a Korean made (I think in the Cort factory) black guard tele with Seymour Duncans in and ironically they were usually pretty heavy guitars. I'd forgotten they existed until recently and when I've looked people are asking £600 for them and advertising them a some kind of long forgotten sleeper guitar?!

 

[muscmp]

if most is junk, as you seem to imply, who cares? maybe only those who don't do their due diligence.

play music!

 

[drmordo]

Thanks for your reply! Latest ones for me have been the Epiphone Sorrento that they made in 2012, Chinese made hollow bodies aren't usually hot items and you used to be able to pick them up for about £400-500. Someone offered me one this week for £1,500 and there's another on ebay for the same price.

Likewise the Fender Lite Ash Telecaster - they were around for a while in the early 2000s, basically a Korean made (I think in the Cort factory) black guard tele with Seymour Duncans in and ironically they were usually pretty heavy guitars. I'd forgotten they existed until recently and when I've looked people are asking £600 for them and advertising them a some kind of long forgotten sleeper guitar?!

Those are both kinda unusual guitars, which might be driving up the cost on them. I just looked and the prices seem about the same over here on those.

 

[Tele-friend]

I read on another forum from a very credible source that Fender has been raising prices and is going to do it again soon. He sells mainly new Fender gear.

If that's the case then used prices will only go higher as well.

Guys from Casino Guitars YT channel say that Fender is going to raise their prices in July this year (and also some other companies they added).
I think that this crazy times are not going to be over really soon as inflation is still high, lots of people buying new stuff (high demand), troubles with logistics, transportaion etc. But eventually things should get better and then all this gear will flood the market.
The prices (of new and used) however will not drop back to 'pre-virus time'.

 

[bgmacaw]

Let me know when I can buy a 1973 Strat for $250 again. Until then, I'll assume the price of used gear is going to go up, up, up.