After the fires came the rain and flash floods. We have friends who died in Montecito and others who barely escaped with their lives. If the heavy rain cell had parked directly over our little watershed rather than theirs, a difference of about five miles, then it very easily could have been us. We are inconvenienced because the roads are blocked in all directions. But we mourn the loss of friends and are in shock after the illusion of stability has been stripped away. To inoculate against blaming the victims: everyone I am talking about was within the voluntary evacuation zone, not the mandatory zone. Everybody also had evacuation fatigue after a couple weeks of it during the fire. Anyone not ordered to leave made the understandable decision to shelter in place. Hindsight is 20:20 of course.