Vintage Partscasters and Vintage Guitars in the Future

[Trimac20]

Thinking about vintage guitars and 'relics', it got me wondering what the vintage market will be like in 20-30-40+ years. Of course there are alot more guitars being produced today than ever before and it might be harder to tell fakes due to improved forgery methods (though I highly doubt it'll become impossible). Of course it's kind of pointless to predict, but do you think an American Standard made in 2000 be much more valuable than it's price when it was first bought? It seems to me part of the mystique of models in the 50s was their rarity and the fact they were amongst the earliest issues.

Having sold (or rather 'half-sold') my 52 to build my own axe from parts, I was wondering what the comparative resale value of geniune Fenders and 'Partscasters' would be on the vintage market. If I were to make an exact copy of a 52RI part for part and 20 years later advertised it as a relic partscaster, would I get significantly less than if I was selling a Fender Tele? I would think so, but I guess there's little to compare as back in the day fewer people were building their own Teles. It's more out of curiosity as I don't plan to sell any more of my guitars...maybe when I'm famous I might auction them off to charity and they can display them in a shiny glass cabinet.

[tcadam]

It's a good question. I think that the vintage market is dependent on the over all economy in general so it'd be tough to predict. I'm always surprised when items that I would have never thought would appreciate, start to. For example, if you had asked me 20 years ago if I thought a '70's 3-bolt neck Fender would be selling for a few thousand bucks today, I would have said no. Having said that, I would still have trouble imagining that an MIM or plain MIA will ever see much appreciation but I've been wrong before and will be again.

[gitarjoe]

Well, I just got through reading this months VintageGuitar magazine. They are claimng that the vintage market is down. They are saying that no one was buying refins, or good players, vintage guitars anymore. The term he used was"be clean, or be gone". Which is a shame that good vintage guitars are not finding a home. Getting back to your question, I guess it depends on the market for that year.

[F1rocco]

I was thinking about those relic guitars a few days ago......

If your a player and see one you being played at a local club you think must be an original....Then maybe not...Cant stop thinking about it.......

Then if your not a player but like his/her music you might think...Why doesnt he/she buy a new guitar....Cheap Bstird

So who actually buys these....Us players....Not the average noob on the hunt for a first guitar @ $1500 plus...Let alone the price for a sig model..

In the meantime...People are not sure to buy a vintage because the quality of the fakes are just too good.......These guitars are cool but there is just too many high dollar guitars to choose from and even more that are junk..



What could be the prices of vintage and and relics be.....Im thinking the bizarre and oddest color originals or relics will be the only thing worth a heck....Some 20 year old will be giving his or her opinion whether a guitar is original or not 30 years from now at GC....Uuurrgg

[stephent2]

The market is adjusting. I suspect there are less buyers who are sentimental about the guitars that us older folks covet.

Refins were bringing stupid prices for a couple years, I'm glad that era seems to be over, "clean" should be rewarded, pieced together guitars should be valued on their own merits, not on some mythical concept.

[Oster]

Originally Posted by gitarjoe

Well, I just got through reading this months VintageGuitar magazine. They are claimng that the vintage market is down. They are saying that no one was buying refins, or good players, vintage guitars anymore. The term he used was"be clean, or be gone". Which is a shame that good vintage guitars are not finding a home. Getting back to your question, I guess it depends on the market for that year.

What I've noticed is that the good stores - the ones doing well - are the ones that only - or at least primarily - buy and sell clean vintage stuff.

Other used stores - the ones selling mainly partscasters and off-brand stuff - are closer to a pawn shop enviroment and not doing so well.

Maybe it's all a reaction to ebay. The market has narrowed its focus to what a discerning player might want (kind of like a video rental store...the only ones viable in the new age of video on demand cable are the snobby, film-buff type places).

Maybe this is where the market has been all along and the novelty of ebay only created a false boom.

*Though overpriced many refins and partscasters may be, boutique copies are just as overpriced IMO. One store I was in yesterday had terrific vintage stock. Nothing was parts or sawed-off in anyway. HOWEVER...they had their own line of homemade vintage-style stuff which was...optimistically priced to say the least when you consider that it will surely be of far less value in the long run than even the most tinkered-with vintage guitar.

[serialsteve]

The vintage market just shot out through the ceiling at a much more accelerated rate over the past two years than any time since the late 70s that I've seen. The "good" stuff like 50s LPs, custom color Fenders (Strats), korina pointies, etc increased exponentially very quickly. That pushed the collectibility of "second tier" or "B grade" guitars like Teles, SGs and Reverse Birds up because they were all that was affordable for the bulk of collectors. That circle has spread out again and in the past two years, 70s Fenders doubled, and Jazzmasters and some Jags have tripled or better. Older Mustangs are now $1000+(!) guitars. I'm just waiting for Duosonics and Musicmasters to take off! There are a handful of dealers/speculators who have (sometimes successfully) tried to drive up the prices of certain models (look at one guy selling Fender XIIs for between $3-8K on eBay!). The stock has been stagnant for a while, unlike in the past half decade when you could ask $10k for a TV LP Jr when they were selling for $5k and 6 months later, people would bang your door down to get it for $12k.

The US Dollar's decline/US economy in general has clearly impacted the US market, but many people I know "holding" guitars, can't afford to sell them because they overpaid. One would think that the European market would be the logical place to move things, but I haven't seen that. Maybe Europeans don't have the same obsession with quantity and collecting that we do here!

[0le FUZZY]

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[tiktok]

I think the Relic line takes a lot of wind out of the vintage market, because it provides a way for older guys with a bit of money to buy the dream guitar of their youth for a fairly reasonable price (sub $5k) leaving the upper end of the market to investors. Without the base of the market being driven by well-heeled living-room players (nothing wrong with that), the upper end gets a bit less firm, since for every high priced offering, there has to be a buyer, and the utility value of an electric guitar has been left far behind at $20k+.

If I happened to inherit an actual vintage guitar, I'd loudly tell everyone that it was a Relic to make it less attractive to theft.

[howlin]

Originally Posted by serialsteve

Maybe Europeans don't have the same obsession with quantity and collecting that we do here!

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[tboy]

A few thoughts:
Recent prices of Teles and Strats have gotten somewhat out of control in my opinion. There has to be a huge adjustment coming. About 4 years ago, a highly respected dealer told me that he greatly slowed his acquisitions of vintage Fenders because his expert techs could no longer vet real from fake. I noticed that he got over his fear when he realized that no one else could tell either. When I was selling my house in Florida 3 years ago, a walk-through saw my 50's Tele case and invited me to his house, where he operated a virtual "vintage Tele/Strat" factory. He had parts soaking in acid, buried out back, hanging in his "smoke room", etc... his "work" was frightening. Serial numbers, pencil marks, scanned perfect logos, everything top shelf. He showed me a scrap book of semi-famous players who had him replicate their prized Fenders. He doesn't sell to the general public, but he's seen his work for sale at shows as original. Then, there's a pickup maker who rewound a Tele pup for me and told me that he invisibly marks all his work, then goes to shows and regularly finds his pups on "100% vintage" axes. I've owned Fenders since the days when techs burned used necks for firewood, because Leo's original concept was don't re-fret. Replace. And I know that I would NOT be able to sniff out most of this fake stuff. It's too good. Every nuance is spoken for.
A buddy recently purchased a '54 Tele for $34,000. He brought it to the gig and I played it. Yep...a Tele. Two band-sawed hunks of wood spray-finished, screwed together, fitted on an assembly line with frets basic electronics. Nice axe. Some vibe. Pup's nothing special. Good weight. I've played a number of real dogs too, and those are also selling for 34-40 large. My '59 is about as good as they come. I've owned it a very long time, and it's a valued friend. But so is my $500 MIJ Strat from the 80's. I love that thing!
It's been said that there are 2 to 3 times as many 50's Fenders out there as were ever made by Fender. I think the estimate is low. Did my good buddy get taken for 34 large, in part or in whole? Very hard to tell. It's a fifty year old, mass market, solid bodied guitar. Not a Pennsylvania Cherrywood Chippendale era High Boy.
I personally don't care what vintage prices do. Tele's are as good now as they ever were. Maybe better, in my opinion. If vintage Teles get to 150 grand, I don't think it's as big a loss to the playing community as some think. They're no longer viable guitars anymore. They're 401K's now.

[RodeoTex]

Factoring in the difference in the value of the dollar over the years, maybe these seemingly multi-fold valuations aren't so far out of line. (Yes I know there's plenty of exceptions).

Thought #2: To answer the original question about whether or not partscasters and MIMs will have a similar price escalation: How much longer will quality hardwoods be available for mass production? Ash, alder, maple and rosewood are not being regrown in sustainable quantities as the current usage demands.
In a few years, the average players may be debating the tonal differences between Pine and Fir. The rich guys and investors may be snapping up MIMs, 90s Relics and such for unbelievably large sums. Heck, all necks and fretboards may be carbon fiber by then (no trussrod required, full circle from Leo's original intent for the Esquire).

Not being too tounge-in-cheek here. There's a lot going on in our world today that those from the 50s could not have imagined. I'm hoarding cheap guitars just in case.

[Oster]

Originally Posted by tiktok

If I happened to inherit an actual vintage guitar, I'd loudly tell everyone that it was a Relic to make it less attractive to theft.

Ironically, there's a good chance most people these days would assume it's a relic anyway!

[TheDev01dOne]

My opinion may not be very valid being only 19 but anyway..

I think the boom of vintage guitar prices has ruined the whole vintage market from a players perspective.. Because these investors with bootloads of money will pay 50K+ for a clean 'unplayed' vintage guitar, the prices of the good player guitars have shot up stupidly aswell.. Which kinda defeats the purpose at all since you have these investors with all these nice guitars never getting played, and then all these good playing guitars sitting around in shops doing nothing, investors don't spend their money on them and us players can't afford them, or the insurance on them to have as playing guitars.

As for the future, I'm not too sure but when you look at the prices of the early MIJ fenders and 70s "pre-lawsuit" copy guitars from brands like Greco, Tokai, Burny etc. In the last maybe 2 years the prices have gone way up from what they used to be, which I think is filling the gap for the 'playing' section of guitar collectors. They're not 'vintage' but they're getting old, good quality, and some models are quite rare and they're still affordable enough to take out and gig with or own 20 laying around your house until the boom in 2020?

So there's always going to be unpredictable surprises I think. But as a young player it is disappointing to think I might never even get to touch a genuine blackguard, let alone own one, because a bunch of rich businessmen have them all locked up in vaults not getting played.

[tboy]

Don't be too down about 50's blackguard prices. You live in a great era of guitar building. The stupid prices of "real" vintage solid bodied guitars (50 & early 60's Gibsons & Fenders) are where they are more because of what they are...that is, icons of the birth of rock n roll. People like Clapton, Page, Bloomfield, etc, played them because 60's & 70's axes didn't deliver. Big corps stepped in and build quality went in the toilet, but that problem has been turned around since the 80's. Anyone who buys a 70's Gibson without completely checking it out just because some dealer called it great vintage quality is sucked in and ripped off.

Guitars made now are as good as any ever made. I currently own 50's and 60's Fenders, 50's Pauls, Gretches, etc, and I gig every week... and from the player's/collector's POV, the quality of new stuff, even cheap stuff from Korea, is quite excellent. A controversial point... the issue of "old tonewood" is quite negligable in a solid body elec guit. I get a chuckle when I see a builder "tap tuning" a solid body. This is voodoo. I know there are many who greatly disagree, but I've built tons of Teles & Strats and also Martin style 000's and D style acoustics, and experience tells me that wood gets way too much credit in solid guitars where the theories of Einstein and Gauss explain most of the tone. Heck, it's only about 30% of the equation in well built acoustic guitars. A bit more brightness, a little more woody, etc... Get yourself a good MIJ 50's or 60's reissue, or a more recent model, and rock on. The world is currently awash with fantastic guitars that rival anything ever made, dare I say even that 90G 50's Blackguard!

[odiemann]

A few thoughts:
Recent prices of Teles and Strats have gotten somewhat out of control in my opinion. There has to be a huge adjustment coming. About 4 years ago, a highly respected dealer told me that he greatly slowed his acquisitions of vintage Fenders because his expert techs could no longer vet real from fake. I noticed that he got over his fear when he realized that no one else could tell either. When I was selling my house in Florida 3 years ago, a walk-through saw my 50's Tele case and invited me to his house, where he operated a virtual "vintage Tele/Strat" factory. He had parts soaking in acid, buried out back, hanging in his "smoke room", etc... his "work" was frightening. Serial numbers, pencil marks, scanned perfect logos, everything top shelf. He showed me a scrap book of semi-famous players who had him replicate their prized Fenders. He doesn't sell to the general public, but he's seen his work for sale at shows as original. Then, there's a pickup maker who rewound a Tele pup for me and told me that he invisibly marks all his work, then goes to shows and regularly finds his pups on "100% vintage" axes. I've owned Fenders since the days when techs burned used necks for firewood, because Leo's original concept was don't re-fret. Replace. And I know that I would NOT be able to sniff out most of this fake stuff. It's too good. Every nuance is spoken for.
A buddy recently purchased a '54 Tele for $34,000. He brought it to the gig and I played it. Yep...a Tele. Two band-sawed hunks of wood spray-finished, screwed together, fitted on an assembly line with frets basic electronics. Nice axe. Some vibe. Pup's nothing special. Good weight. I've played a number of real dogs too, and those are also selling for 34-40 large. My '59 is about as good as they come. I've owned it a very long time, and it's a valued friend. But so is my $500 MIJ Strat from the 80's. I love that thing!
It's been said that there are 2 to 3 times as many 50's Fenders out there as were ever made by Fender. I think the estimate is low. Did my good buddy get taken for 34 large, in part or in whole? Very hard to tell. It's a fifty year old, mass market, solid bodied guitar. Not a Pennsylvania Cherrywood Chippendale era High Boy.
I personally don't care what vintage prices do. Tele's are as good now as they ever were. Maybe better, in my opinion. If vintage Teles get to 150 grand, I don't think it's as big a loss to the playing community as some think. They're no longer viable guitars anymore. They're 401K's now.

Amen! I could not agree more. However, you will not get much of a reaction positive or negative on this forum. It is a sensitive issue. Many here own vintage teles, some acquired long ago, some more recently. To fathom the idea of an investment and cherished loved one being fake does not sit too well.

It must be considered. Even the idea that a "clean" guitar from the 60's has a pot replaced and the value drops, or it's been refretted affects the vintage pricing. That seems absurd to anyone but guitar collectors. Would you expect to find a 65 Mustang with original tires?

Oh, I agree that Leo's original idea must have been to replace the neck. I want to know where are those guitars in the market; one that someone actually played, wore out the frets, and sent it to Fender for a new neck. Where is that in the pricing guides?

And I disagree with the premise that relics have hurt the market in general. I think they have only worsened the values of non-mint guitars. Relics have little affect on the top end of the market in my opinion.

[Oster]

Originally Posted by tboy

A buddy recently purchased a '54 Tele for $34,000. He brought it to the gig and I played it. Yep...a Tele. Two band-sawed hunks of wood spray-finished, screwed together, fitted on an assembly line with frets basic electronics...It's a fifty year old, mass market, solid bodied guitar. Not a Pennsylvania Cherrywood Chippendale era High Boy.

I'm going to be so bold as to say that I would make a good Guitar Forensics Guy! I've been shown some highly vaunted relics and I've sniffed them out as fake pretty quickly. I don't know as much about Telecasters as some here but I know old stuff. My parents - my dad in particular - loved going to farmer's flea markets and I've had the feel for things from another era for a long time. There's an attitude or spirit that comes across stuff from the '50s or '60s that modern minds can't replicate fully, only superficially - including the music itself from that time.

I would dispute the contention that Telecasters were simply assembly line mass market things, especially by today's standards - there's so much more to the old ones than that. Pretty much any pre-CNC Fender stands apart from today's look. Even my '71 body looks like it was made on an altogether different planet from today's MIA bodies. Again, not to sound too flaky about it, but it exudes an altogether different spirit. No amount of acids, grit and flung metal objects can get there.

One thing Fenders are and were meant to be is modular, or built from components. It would be impossible to tell if I was getting an 'all '53' Tele, the way it left Fullerton but to me as long as the major parts were all genuine Fender from around that year, I wouldn't complain (as was pointed out, how could you tell if the neck was at one time replaced)?. Chances are most Fender vintage advertised as such by reputable dealers are original. I say that because I think the notion of DIY modding is a later construct and if someone like me can spot a fake, I'm sure many of the longtime dealers can too.

As a side note, I was bidding on a Harmony neck recently. I was surprised to see it advertised as '100% genuine'. The thought of counterfeit Harmony Rocket necks sounds laughable until you see clean '60s Rockets going for $800.00 on ebay! Unbelievable. Then again, for those of us who like old stuff from another time, the realization is there that the Harmony factory in Chicago is long gone and real Rockets aren't made anymore. Pretty soon the market will be flooded with asian-made repros of old Rockets and Meteors. I'm sure a lot of people won't be able to tell these from an original but I will.

Harmonys were certainly less painstakingly made than Fenders but like original Fenders they're now extinct. Though neither were up to standard of antiques from the American Arts & Crafts movement, they were made a certain way that makes them unique and desirable. Again, I think ebay has distorted and inflated the value of many things but there has, and will continue to be, a steady incline of the value of vintage guitars.

[teleamp]

Originally Posted by tiktok

.....If I happened to inherit an actual vintage guitar, I'd loudly tell everyone that it was a Relic to make it less attractive to theft.....

Not a bad idea, slap a CS logo on the back of the neckand enjoy.

MikeY

[tboy]

Great concepts coming out here! What I'm saying is that I love my 50's Fenders, because of what they represent, not because they play, sound or are made better than new guits. My guess is that the development of rock music would have been impossible without the contributions of Leo (& Bigsby). These are the guitars that broke free from the formal constraints and paragdiams still present in 50's Gibsons, Gretches, etc. Even the les Paul was designed as a Jazz/Pop guitar. Along comes Tele & Strat, and sport cars were finally introduced into a world of musical Cadillacs and Heavy Chevys. Hard country, electric blues and rock had to emerge, it was dictated by the available tools and the new noises they made.
I think the prices of genuine vintage Fenders (& Gibsons) are truly justified by this connection. In wide eyed reality, they honestly do not sound or play better in and of themselves (barring 70's guitars). What they do is make me play better because they connect me to the roots in a viseral and tangible way. I'm touching the past when I pick up my 59, and that makes everything just a little more urgent. Kind of like an audience vs. no audience, or jamming at home vs. studio recording.
What bugs me is that the fakes are so good, the undetectables conjour up those same feelings, because we are talking a kind of spirituality, almost religion here, where the reality of the situation is in our heads. Remember, fake Rembrants, Monets and Picasso's hang in many great museums, and unaware observers and expert curators are moved by them same as by the real ones. But when fakes are finally sniffed out, they are removed and banished, sometimes destroyed. I know that if I found out my 50's Fender was fake, even after thinking it was real for 10 years and having it inspire me to new peaks, man, that would be a blow, and the magic would drain from it in 2 seconds.
In this light, maybe sniffing out fakes isn't the best thing to do, but in essence, they are a sin against musical civilization in the same way that a phony Picasso is a sin against the civilized artistic sense in all of us. Not to mention, robbery on a grand scale.
Bottom line, I don't think relics will ever shoot way up in value. They're legitimate fakes (albeit great guitars), and conjour up no genuine pipeline to the roots of R&R.

[ravindave_3600]

Originally Posted by tboy

conjour up no genuine pipeline to the roots of R&R.

Well said. Copies, relics, fakes, may have lots going for them. But what they don't have is HISTORY (any more than a copy of the Declaration of Independence hanging on a classroom wall is historical). They do the exact same thing as the originals, but they are only a tribute.