Will "vintage " guitars continue to be good invest

[Southpaw433]

a few years ago, I would of never considered '70s Telecasters selling for what they are now (but I didn't predict $3/Gal for gas either.)

My theory is, demand changes as we age - demand is for what was from the prime time for a given generation. As much as I hated the 80's with disco and big hair rock bands, time has moved on - 35- 45 y/o with the means see this as their "time".

What is today's 10 year old going to covet in the year 2060? Think about that !

E-bay in 2060 (or something we can't even imagine today) will have for sale:

Infinity Telecaster Vintage 2005, made in the (former) USA , all pots match time period, real organic material (known as "Wood") Reserve set at 60 Trillion Yen/dollar debits.

Hey it could happen!

[red57strat]

That and the fact that as the '50s and '60s stuff becomes too expensive for most of us, the '70s stuff has become more desireable.

When I was a teen a 4-door sedan from the '50s was not desireable at all. We wouldn't be caught dead in them. Now that a '50s 2-door is priced out of the reach of most of us, a lot of folks are reconsidering 4-doors.

[Rick 381]

Very few people who played them are still around to drive the prices on vintage Martins but a 1930 OOO-45 still goes for $75K.

Trendy vintage, like those Airlines that Jack White made popular, may not hold value, but a quality guitar will always be worth something.

[Unburst]

My prediction?
Everything is gonna get more expensive.

Seriously, you can't get that wood anymore, old guitars are going to go up faster than real estate.

[beez]

Well...by definition, they don't make vintage guitars anymore.

All kidding aside, you will probably see...25 years from now...a drive for mint condition guitars that are being made now. As that supply is deleted, beat up guitars of the same vintage will increase in price.

George Gruhn himself has said that we live in a golden age of guitars, where there has never been more quality guitars being made. I am sure we are due for a 21st century version of the 70's, where quality declines...then it will slowly rebuild itself. Just MHO.....

[stephent2]

Yes.

Better return than mutual funds or CDs. Only all original pieces are a sure thing.

[Mur]

80's Teles will always be worth just a fraction of 50's ones, as they are now. And I think in twenty years, people will spend big bucks on vintage Nintendo units, and cartridges ..and there'll be a forum called NDPRI.

[ironweed]

This will also depend on how many guitar players there are in 2060. When I was born, the piano was the most popular and prevalent instrument in the home. A couple of generations before that, it was the fiddle. Right now I think that the guitar is the most-played instrument, but what does the future hold? I agree that top-drawer instruments will probably maintain top-drawer prices into the future, but if all our kids and grandkids are rockin' out on keyboards or horns or theramins, all the "ordinary" guitars will go cheap.

[the velvet catfish]

It only cost's 100% more to go first class.

[reverbbb]

You got to be kidding.

I remember when the '68 Nolan Ryan rookie card was commanding close to $6,000 back in the early '90s. That card would be considered vintage, and there will never be any more originals (RI out the ying-yang though). I see today where you can bid on these originals for less than $400. That don't sound like a good investment to me.

This vintage amp and guitar crazy will loose it's drive eventually and lots of folks will be burned. You can justify the fact that a baseball card and a guitar are different in many ways. But the one thing that is not different is that the prices are driven by speculation, demand and greed (or all of the aforementioned). When greed exceeds logic, there is a collapse or a reset that is inevitable. There is not much logic behind why a wooden and metal object made 50 years ago jumps from $1500 to $45,000 in a 20 year time spand. Especially when those wood and metal objects are still being made with improved or copy-cat technologies.

Sure, there is going to be some "investors" or "collectors" willing to pay top dollar for an old original in great shape (just like there were with the Nolan Ryan rookie card). But they will become fewer and fewer and eventually the outragious pricing will cause abandonment. The pop-culture will change and the demand will soften. Ask anybody that is 80+ years old if they remember how huge of a sensation Mae West or Rudy Valli were in their day (and the younger generations says "who?").

The Antique Road Show is great entertainment for the intellect. But ask any of those folks if they have ever sold their "appraised" Tiffany Lamp for $55,000. There will be a few that were fortunate, but the rest are left wondering who is going to pay me that much for this "rare antique".

Buy a guitar that you enjoy playing and means more than money to you. Buy good quality and live life to the fullest.

[WrapAround]

Does anyone remember the crash of vintage automobile market in the early 90's? Is there a possibility of something like that happening to the VG market?

[mark norwine]

May I vote "NO"?

Walk around a guitar show....the bigger the better....and do a "demographic profile" of those in attendance.

How many "under 30" people do you see? At the shows I attend, I see very, very few. More importantly, as a percentage of the total attendance, the number would seem to be even lower.

Yet a strong representation by the under 30 crowd is, IMO, exactly what's needed to keep the demand up. Supply & demand....that's what keeps the prices up. Intrinsically, a guitar holds no special "value"....there's no precious metals, no precious stones, etc. The "value" lies solely in the notion that "you can't buy 'em like that new anymore" coupled with the fond memory of, "that's what kind of guitar __________ played back in the 50's/60's/whatever".

The younger set don't share the memories of the older crowd, and to wit, these pieces hold a lower value.

Let me interrupt myself and say that I mean no offense to any younger members of the TDPTI....quite to the contrary, I think it's marvelous that this site isn't just a bunch of old curmudgeons {like me!!}. But IMO the fact remains....who's coming up behind us to share our love for these pieces? The population of that demographic is too thin to carry the weight of this industry.

And look at modern music.....how many of today's "stars" are playing vintage pieces? Practically none. I grew up watching my favorite guitarists play old Les Pauls, Strats, Firebirds...and, of course, Tele's. They set the stage for my desires, so now I want to buy those guitars. They hold memories as much as anything else. Younger players have different memories.

Here's what I mean....Why are Mustangs up? Two words: Kurt Cobain. An otherwise crappy guitar that won't stay in tune is now worth big bucks.

But as "today's music" becomes more about fashion & choreography than it does about music, guitars fall off the radar. That bodes poorly for the vintage guitar business.

And in our youth, we bought & listened to records! Rock & roll was #1. Today, Rap & {what is referred to as} R&B is #1, and there's not a guitar to be heard, let alone a vintage guitar. That also bodes poorly for the vintage guitar business.

To my way of thinking, this industry has less then 15 years to live. I hope I'm wrong, but I bet I'm not....

[benmeza]

Ya, I tend to think we are either nearing or right at a peak of vintage guitar prices. If your collecting to sell, sell now. I'm not saying all prices will fall in the near future(classic tele's, Les Pauls, & strats may never decline - just lose appreciation value), but I think the majority of the vintage mystique will lose it's luster and you will see poorly made "vintage" guitar prices come back down a bit(come on ya'll - you know there's a lot of bad vintage players out there)

It seems like we are in an awkward time where there is a changing of the guard - the baby boomers are retiring, their kids & grandkids are starting to take over, and the climate that surrounded those kids growing up(the "nostalgic value" if you will) is different than their parents. Those raised in the 80s may remember more classic synths(those prices are climbing) than classic guitars. The folks into music from the 90's & 2000s may be more interested in PRS guitars (which are far less rare), and beatboxes like the SP-1200.

Vintage tele's, strats, and Les Pauls more than guitars were symbols of styles of music and the idols that drove those styles. Does a vintage strat cost the same in today's environment if Hendrix majoratively played Jazzmaster's instead?

How bout now? Now the emphasis in most popular styles is the next big thing - there are few long term careers in the business & even fewer still that are assosciated with their guitars. Who is going to drive the "vintage strat bus" into the future like SRV did pushing the strat legacy further in the 80s? It looks like the guitar makers are doing it right now by endlessly repackaging their own vintage legacy but how long can they keep that up succesfully?

Take all of that into consideration AND the fact that there are tons of very high quality guitars out there for reasonable prices, and it's hard to believe the prices will continue to rise more than average inflation rates....

I'm sure a collector's market will exist into the future, but I would guess it would probably coincide less & less with the player's market...but that's just one twenty something's presumptuous opinion. :)

[stevieboy]

The biggest difference betweeen today's guitars and those of the 50's IMO in terms of future collectibility is the quantity manufactured. Value of old things is a combination of rareity and desirability. Many of today's guitars will be desirable, but possibly not that rare.

The baseball card boom of the 80's was partly driven by the high prices certain old cards were getting. Companies put out set after set, new companies were opening every day. But it began to dawn on people that the old cards were valuable because no one expected them to be, many were tossed out by someone's Mom, or clothespinned into bicycle spokes to make that cool noise. Everyone was buying the new stuff and putting it away for the future, so mint sets weren't going to be exactly rare. So the card market has settled back to what it was meant to be, kids (and their Dad's) enjoying their hobby. The exact same thing won't happen to guitars, as most people buy them I think to play them, but availibility will be an issue.

Originally Posted by Mur

80's Teles will always be worth just a fraction of 50's ones, as they are now. And I think in twenty years, people will spend big bucks on vintage Nintendo units, and cartridges ..and there'll be a forum called NDPRI.

I suppose that could be true. The thing about technology products is that they become obsolete so fast there really isn't any reason to build them that well--why build something to last 20 years when it's going to be useless in 3? By the way, Mur, did you know there is a working Pong machine (I think it was the original video game) down at the Redondo Beach Pier?

[AJ Love]

Very interesting points made all-around... it is difficult to predict the directions that popular culture will take. IF guitars are still a popular item 40-50 years from now, I would imagine that some of the Fender Custom Shop and top boutique makers like Lentz guitars being made in the last 10 years or so will be high in demand. But that is a big "if"

I would not be suprised to see the Vintage market fall apart in the next 15 years. If that means that someday I can buy a 1957 Tele for $2000 I'm all for it ;)

[Rufus]

If there's one lesson that I've learned in life, its that Timing is Everything.
Just like the stock and real estate markets, there are periods of boom and bust. The sine wave curve applies.
I recall when it was "GUARANTEED" that you would make money in the California real estate market (and that was true for such a long time that people ASSUMED that it would continue forever.) However, the market experienced a "correction" in the early '90's and if you had to sell, you were in for a significant loss...if you wanted to buy, time for a good deal. For stocks and mutual funds, We have experienced 2 major stock market "corrections" in my adult investing life, @ fall 1987 and late '90s. Years' worth of profits disappear literally overnight.
Guitars are different than stocks or real estate, but demand and prices are determined by various (sometimes frivolous) factors and what's true today ain't gonna necessarily be true next week, year or decade.
If I owned a true $$$"vintage" guitar that I could bear to part with, I'd sell now, while the gettin' is good -take the money and run. Just as no one can time the precise peak moment in the stock market to sell, its better to make a great profit now than to hold on too long and get caught during a market correction.
Its also got to do with your personal philosophy- I think a vintage Tele or Strat are great and I would love to own one (if you can find me a Lefty), but the prices are waaaaaaay past absurd ($20,000 - $40,000; for a GUITAR!?!?!?! - its not a piece of Art, its a functional tool to make music with. And it really won't make me play one bit better.) As much as I love the Mojo of vintage equipment, the truth is, in a blindfolded test, very few of us mere mortals could tell the difference in the sound and feel of a "vintage" instrument and a very high quality instrument of today crafted to the same specs. Most of it is our ego's and the status of having what not many others can possess.
I'd sell now and buy/assemble a superb modern instrument (using vintage specs) at a fraction of the price...and stuff the rest of the cash under my mattress.
As far as what's gonna be popular in 50 years?? Only a crystal ball or a time machine can help you on that one...

[stephent2]

Analogies to the car market or baseball cards really miss the point, apples and oranges.

As long as there's Rock and Roll and American music, there will be a vintage guitar market and the best pieces will command the highest prices.

There's always movement but even right after 9/11 prices didn't fall, so you nay sayers might want to do some research if it matters to you.

I offered a buddy too much $$ ($2100 at the time) for his "72 tele and he started figuring out the value of his "collection", he did a database with the appreciation graphed over the years he's owned the guitars. The rate of growth and increase in value is very impressive.

But, please, stay out of the vintage market! (More meat for me).

[msteurbaut]

Originally Posted by stephent2

Analogies to the car market or baseball cards really miss the point, apples and oranges.

As long as there's Rock and Roll and American music, there will be a vintage guitar market and the best pieces will command the highest prices.

There's always movement but even right after 9/11 prices didn't fall, so you nay sayers might want to do some research if it matters to you.

I offered a buddy too much $$ ($2100 at the time) for his "72 tele and he started figuring out the value of his "collection", he did a database with the appreciation graphed over the years he's owned the guitars. The rate of growth and increase in value is very impressive.

But, please, stay out of the vintage market! (More meat for me).

Could this discussion affect the market? Markets have a lot to do with rumours...

[benmeza]

Originally Posted by stephent2

Analogies to the car market or baseball cards really miss the point, apples and oranges.

I agree about the baseball card market for sure....

Originally Posted by stephent2

As long as there's Rock and Roll and American music, there will be a vintage guitar market and the best pieces will command the highest prices.

I think this touches on what I was saying earlier though - The landscape of American music isn't as guitar image driven as it used to be & probably even less so geared towards the Fenders & Gibsons in liu of Ibanez or PRS.

No one doubts the best pieces will command the highest prices, but I think the point here is that the growth can not continue at it's present rate for much longer - not that it will decline, but that it will peak. There is only so much of a market of people willing to buy 40k guitars...

I think the real mystery here is how will the US dollar's weakness against foreign currencies affect the vintage market long term. Think about all the vintage pieces that are going overseas because it's cheaper for them to buy in their national currency and ship, than it is for Americans.

What happens as the vintage market slowly thins out in England & America, and value becomes affected by exhange rates, import/export taxes, and just plain convenience....

[timgreene]

As with any investment, yes if you buy right. Buy totaly original if you can, especialy later gear, 70's etc.

With pre cbs, refinishes are a good investment too.

Is the vintage market rational, probably not.

Biggest problem is risk. Money in a mutual fund, or bank is less likely to get stolen.

[dean]

I agree that there will always be a vintage market, and I agree that the size of it will surge and contract because of various forces. It has been speculated that "boomers" market will contract as we boomers age and realize that we can't play Orange Blossom Special like we used to.

But I really think the size of the market will shrink because the buyer base will become smaller. And that will occur because of the increasingly disproportionate distribution of wealth in our country. Fewer people will be able to afford even semi-vintage guitars, but a few will be able to buy the rarest. Prices for many pieces will remain high, but the pool of buyers will decline, so the overall market will retrench. Many of the marginal pieces (refinished guitars, old partscasters, etc.) will not find a market, so their desireability will decrease.

Interesting discussion!

Dean

[reverbbb]

I bought a Les Paul Custom Black Beauty brand new in 1975. I played the frets off of it until 1989 or there abouts. I paid $550 TTL out the door in 1975. In 1989, I ran 6 newspaper ads at a whopping $100 cost. I only got about 10 calls and I wound up selling it at a garage sale for $325 with the OHSC. At the time, Eddie Van Halen had the whole country of big hair players convinced that the striped/pointed top/preamp guitars were the way of the future and the passive "classic" junk was worthless.

Market dynamics changed considerably since then, don't you think? What makes anyone think that they know the future will always command high dollar for vintage guitars? I had no way of knowing that my guitar would be selling for $1400+ if I had just waited a few years. But now there are those grumbling about the "Norlin" era being junk. So it is possible that those '70s LPC will fall in price again.

Some of the best known players in the world are not into spending huge dollars on "vintage" guitars - and they can afford it. From the mouth of Bugs Henderson "Not all vintage gear was any good or desirable - I know because I played that junk when it was new".