Will Modern Guitars Be Worth $$$$$$ In 50 Years?

[sax4blues]

The 1950's Les Paul Goldtop thread got me to wondering if my gear, mainly year 2000+, will be crazy valuable in 2060? I don't really forsee a need to sell the few guitars I have in the future, so my grandkids could have vintage guitars. Will mass production limit their value to roughly inflation?

[ADK Teleman]

I hate to sound like a jerk...but...LOL I buy my guitars to play them. I don't care about resale value because I will keep them until I kick the bucket and then if I have grandkids and they play they can have them. I never got into the buy it and worry about it increasing in value. JMO

[07 road house]

Originally Posted by sax4blues

The 1950's Les Paul Goldtop thread got me to wondering if my gear, mainly year 2000+, will be crazy valuable in 2060? I don't really forsee a need to sell the few guitars I have in the future, so my grandkids could have vintage guitars. Will mass production limit their value to roughly inflation?

I am with you I wonder the same thing.

[bluetele54]

...I'll let you know...let's stay in touch,aren't you???...

[Mike Eskimo]

As much as it pains me to say this (in general, w/ few exceptions I don't like 'em) I think there will definitely be collectible and sought-after Taylors.

Just remember - think of the craziest and least likely candidates and some of them will actually be coveted/collected.

Steve Vai "handle" Ibanez's leap to mind.


Remember - there is a really strong market for "lawsuit"-era Japanese Les Paul copies. And not just the set-neck ones either.

[eljayski]

and say no.

my take is that those that pay the huge $$ are those that came of age in the time when guitar was king, that is, the kingston trio and the acoustic craze and the beatles and the electric craze.

the guitar doesn't have the high profile it did in them thar days, so today's generation and those to follow will not "revere" the guitar as much as "we" oldsters have and so will not be as keen to pony up the big bucks.

i've been wrong before!

eljayski

[mickeydean]

so guitars will be still be the rage in 50 years?

me? i am buying up accordians.

call it a hunch.

[Stevie 202]

Good question.
I don't think so. I believe the whole vintage guitar thing is a sign of our times and as times change the things we think are valuable now will become worthless. And vice-versa of course.

[brokenjoe]

Depends upon what crazy turns pop culture takes, and if electric guitar music is still popular 50 yrs. from now.

[DMace]

Originally Posted by sax4blues

The 1950's Les Paul Goldtop thread got me to wondering if my gear, mainly year 2000+, will be crazy valuable in 2060? I don't really forsee a need to sell the few guitars I have in the future, so my grandkids could have vintage guitars. Will mass production limit their value to roughly inflation?

'Crazy valuable' is a subjective term, of course, but guitars from the 70s and 80s- as bad as many of them are- have appreciated far in excess of inflation. And I've begun to see elevated prices on early 90s guitars as well. It's irrational, but it's happening. In all likelihood, the trend will continue, though obviously not to the degree that one sees with 50s and 60s guitars, where supply is so much lower.

[Jakedog]

I don't know about 2000 and newer model years. I feel with absolute certainty that many 80's and early 90's axes will be highly collectable. It's already starting to happen.

I think early San Dimas Charvels and US made Jacksons will lead the charge. US made Kramers will also see a big spike in value. As more and more manufacturing heads overseas, and quality continues to decline as prices continue to rise, these older US made guitars will rise in value. I'd stake just about anything on it.

Right now, if I were short on funds, and needed first rate, I mean absolute top of the heap build quality, I would be looking to US made Charvel, Jackson, or Kramer guitars. They may look goofy by today's standards, but even now, looking at what is still built domestically and the prices well built domestic instruments sell for, they really don't have any equals. Anywhere. For that matter, I don't think the quality level of a lot of the Japanese made examples of Charvel and Jackson instruments can be touched by anything currently massed produced in this country.

The people who appreciate extremely well made instruments, are growing in numbers as opposed to the people who only appreciate nameplates. These guitars are starting to rise in value, and will continue to do so. I plan on purchasing several in the near future, while they are still relatively cheap and easy to find.

The other guitars I see taking a HUGE leap in the coming decades are early PRS guitars. Especially the pre-CNC years. Hide and watch. In 20-40 years, these will rival today's vintage Gibson and Fender prices.

[Mark Davis]

The reason the Les Pauls sell for so much they didnt make that many of them.

Around 640-650 59 Les Paul Standards combine that with the famous people that played them and its a collectable.

[garytelecastor]

I would say anything that Leo himself built will be worth millions.
He will be likened to Stradivarius.
G & L put out a Broadcaster guitar when they first started that were all signed by Leo, and I would not hesitate to believe they will be worth a fortune.

[elsewhere]

Basic cheapo MIMs and such will probably be more valuable that now since an old guitar is always an old guitar and natural selection will have weeded out the ones that suck and left the good ones going from hand to hand. As for insane amounts of money? Wishful thinking, since there will be a lot more 2004's and 2005's floating around than there are 50's and 60's guitars now. Boutique instruments and rarer brands might be a different story.

[tiktok]

Originally Posted by DMace

'Crazy valuable' is a subjective term, of course, but guitars from the 70s and 80s- as bad as many of them are- have appreciated far in excess of inflation. And I've begun to see elevated prices on early 90s guitars as well. It's irrational, but it's happening. In all likelihood, the trend will continue, though obviously not to the degree that one sees with 50s and 60s guitars, where supply is so much lower.

I haven't seen 80's guitars really pick up yet, excepting low-production oddballs such as the Vai Jem or that Ovation that Josh Homme played. American standard Strats and Tele's are still cheaper than a new one. However, if indie rock bands start playing them, I guess they'd go up just like big headstock 70's Fenders (that Tele that the Radiohead guy plays seems to have bumped up).

The thing that drove the classic vintage market was the perception that the guitars sounded and maybe played better than new examples, plus all the posters showed Rock Gods playing guitars which looked different from what you could buy new.

[Jakedog]

Originally Posted by tiktok

I haven't seen 80's guitars really pick up yet, excepting low-production oddballs such as the Vai Jem or that Ovation that Josh Homme played. American standard Strats and Tele's are still cheaper than a new one. However, if indie rock bands start playing them, I guess they'd go up just like big headstock 70's Fenders (that Tele that the Radiohead guy plays seems to have bumped up).

Well, I think they will rise a lot. Just based on what i've seen. Yes, they are still cheaper than a new one, but they are jumping. 2-3 years ago, I was tripping over used US strats and teles everywhere I went for $400-$550. Now I can't find one in any kind of shape for under $800. Part of this points to a new Fender Strat or Tele now having a street price of $1100. When new prices rise, so do used prices. But I think there has been a stigma associated with the Fender name now. Anything old, US made, and Fender will rise in value. The early 80's strat Elites were some of the worst guitars Fender ever let out of the factory, and they are selling for well over a grand now when you can find one. Just one example...

[jjkrause84]

Originally Posted by DMace

'Crazy valuable' is a subjective term, of course

Can I quote you on that?

That might be the best thing I've read all day!

[TxTeleMan]

Originally Posted by DMace

guitars from the 70s and 80s- as bad as many of them are- have appreciated far in excess of inflation.

It's irrational, but it's happening. In all likelihood, the trend will continue, though obviously not to the degree that one sees with 50s and 60s guitars, where supply is so much lower.

I agree.

In the 60's and 70's, the vintage "pre-CBS" Teles could still be had for low bucks. Robbie Robertson and Bruce Springsteen modded their '50s Fenders; so did many, many others. In the mid-70s, when CBS came out with the 3-bolt neck and quality slipped, the term pre-CBS really took off, and the value of the early Fenders began to take off. Even so, the cost wasn't outrageous. I bought a new Tele Custom in '75 for about $500, and a '66 Tele in 1982 for about $700.

As Roy Buchanan gained fame and the pre-CBS instruments gained value, Fender released their Roy Buchanan model, the 52RI (yes I know Roy Played a 53).

Now, the crummy mid-to-late 70s Fenders are going for 2x the price of a new one, even though the new ones are much better guitars. Remember, it was those crummy 70s models that made "pre-CBS" a common term, and increased the value of the old ones, because in 1978 we all wanted a good old Fender and not a crummy new one.

Due to inflation, what cost $200 in 1958 would cost $1,475 in 2008.

If a new Fender costs $1,475 today, in 50 years a new one may cost $10,800 So how much will a good 2008 Amercan Deluxe Ash Tele bring in 2058? Twenty Grand? Whatever it brings, it will always be a better guitar than a 1978 3-bolt Tele.

[smsuryan]

sort of like classic cars...sort of....you have an old chevy bel-air well thats worth some $$$...there is no classics more being made...in 2050 i doubt one would say..."wow dude! you gotta 2009 chevy cobalt!! amazing!!!" haha

[tiktok]

Originally Posted by Jakedog

Well, I think they will rise a lot. Just based on what i've seen. Yes, they are still cheaper than a new one, but they are jumping. 2-3 years ago, I was tripping over used US strats and teles everywhere I went for $400-$550. Now I can't find one in any kind of shape for under $800. Part of this points to a new Fender Strat or Tele now having a street price of $1100. When new prices rise, so do used prices.

Yeah, but it's when the used price rises independently of, and exceeds the price of a new guitar that you know you're looking at a "vintage" market. I think right now the perception is that an 80's Tele isn't better than a brand new one--hence the fact that they sell for less than a new one.

[tboy]

I don't see it. Maybe 1st generation iPhones will go for a hundred G's

[thepassivevoice]

Originally Posted by eljayski

and say no.

my take is that those that pay the huge $$ are those that came of age in the time when guitar was king, that is, the kingston trio and the acoustic craze and the beatles and the electric craze.

the guitar doesn't have the high profile it did in them thar days, so today's generation and those to follow will not "revere" the guitar as much as "we" oldsters have and so will not be as keen to pony up the big bucks.

eljayski

+1. Unless guitar-based music enjoys that kind of wide-spread popularity in 60 years, I expect my guitars will be worth much less than I paid.

[BuddyLee]

I bought my '92 MiA Tele for $450 new over 10 years ago, I am pretty sure I could get $550 - $700 for it nowadays.

They will increase in value, but I am not sure how much...

[Telesavalis]

for some reason I doubt it.

[Stuco]

Originally Posted by BuddyLee

I bought my '92 MiA Tele for $450 new over 10 years ago, I am pretty sure I could get $550 - $700 for it nowadays.

They will increase in value, but I am not sure how much...

If you bought it in '92, then it's about 17 years old now.

[otterhound]

All it takes is one or two people wanting anything and the value changes in an upward manner . King Arthur's armor would not be very practical today . I bet it wouldn't be cheap . Who knows ? I think that I own one that will appreciate , but I don't care , I'm gonna play it .

[Stuco]

So should I keep the loaded pickguard and backplate from my 09 American Strat that I was planning on selling to cover some of the cost of my new pickups etc? I consider it to be a better guitar now. What would you do?

[JosephB]

i highly doubt it...but if they do people will be wincing at the things us here have done to MIM's just like we wince at folks who modded the guitars from the 50's and 60's!

but...its a moot point since the world is going to end in 3 years (or so said the aztecs).

[jjh37854]

for sure, just look at the prices on a 70's Martin D-18

[BuddyLee]

Originally Posted by Stuco

If you bought it in '92, then it's about 17 years old now.

I bought it around '97. It had been sitting in the storage room of Bizarre Guitar Sparks/Reno for about 5 years before I bought it as new-old-stock.

[jefsut]

[quote=Jakedog;2117867]
I think early San Dimas Charvels and US made Jacksons will lead the charge. US made Kramers will also see a big spike in value. As more and more manufacturing heads overseas, and quality continues to decline as prices continue to rise, these older US made guitars will rise in value. I'd stake just about anything on it.

"Quality continues to decline?" I think maybe the opposite is and will continue to be true. Look at all the raves the Chinese-made Squier Classic Vibe inspires on these boards. Cheap labor, smarter CNC machines, and non-existent environmental regulations are probably positives for guitar quality (putting moral questions aside).

Scarcity is the real key. It never ceases to amaze me where all the guitars in the world go when you think about the sheer quantity being produced (even by manufacturers like Taylor).

[Telemarkman]

Originally Posted by Mark Davis

The reason the Les Pauls sell for so much they didnt make that many of them.

Around 640-650 59 Les Paul Standards combine that with the famous people that played them and its a collectable.

That's it, I guess - the fewer made, the greater the value. And of course, famous players don't hurt the value either.

[Jakedog]

[quote=jefsut;2118017]

Originally Posted by Jakedog

I think early San Dimas Charvels and US made Jacksons will lead the charge. US made Kramers will also see a big spike in value. As more and more manufacturing heads overseas, and quality continues to decline as prices continue to rise, these older US made guitars will rise in value. I'd stake just about anything on it. "

"Quality continues to decline?" I think maybe the opposite is and will continue to be true. Look at all the raves the Chinese-made Squier Classic Vibe inspires on these boards. Cheap labor, smarter CNC machines, and non-existent environmental regulations are probably positives for guitar quality (putting moral questions aside).

Scarcity is the real key. It never ceases to amaze me where all the guitars in the world go when you think about the sheer quantity being produced (even by manufacturers like Taylor).

Yes, quality continues to decline. Sure, for $300 or whatever they are going for, the CV series is a good alternative to an $1100 US Fender for some people, but to put them anywhere close to each other quality wise is ludicrous. And yes, I have played them. I even own a CV P-bass. It's very nice, FOR THE MONEY, but doesn't compare in any way to the real thing.

Also, anyone can build a guitar that plays like a million bucks today. But what's it gonna be like in twenty years? Especially if it's played and gigged hard. Quality made US instruments have a proven track record for lasting over the long haul and staying solid. I have seen WAY too many imported guitars that have nearly nothing left of them after five to ten years of gigging, if they even last that long. And if they do last that long, they have several upgraded/replaced parts. The quality of imported guitars today is good. You can get a MUCH better guitar brand new for $200 today than you ever could many years ago. Overall quality is still not even close to what Fender USA puts out though.

Not to mention, the guitars I mentioned were of a much higher build and materials quality than anything Fender USA was putting out on the same time period.

[Telarkaster]

Guitar based music isn't important to most people today, so today's guitars won't be valued.

However those plastic guitar shaped control thingy's for Guitar Hero will be worth a fortune...

[DMace]

Check out ebay completed listings. 80s American Fenders, at least the reissues, are selling at a premium, even though they are considered inferior to the reissues that followed in the subsequent decade and beyond. Ten years ago the 80s Fenders were dismissed as of poor quality, and sold for squat. Now, they're collectible. It's happening the same way it happened with the formerly dismissed 70s Fenders, and the 90s will follow in suit. You can already see prices rising for early 90s Fenders.

[DMace]

Originally Posted by jjkrause84

Can I quote you on that?

That might be the best thing I've read all day!

I'd be honored.

[hannigan]

I think the guitars will rise in value simple supply demand thing.
I dont think money will be worth anything though.

[Clutch442]

I don't think your standard run of the mill guitars will go up in value as collectors items. I can see them going up in value over the wood supply in 50 years. There may be a few special run models that go up in value. If the wood supply depletes they may very well be worth something.

[boris bubbanov]

Originally Posted by hannigan

I think the guitars will rise in value simple supply demand thing.
I dont think money will be worth anything though.

I think I understand what you mean.

A 1982 Telecaster in excellent condition will be worth $$$$$$$.

A 24 ounce loaf of fresh whole wheat bread will be worth $$$$$$$. Same.

Unless population numbers are capped in some fashion and USA productivity rises very rapidly, we will be in the trenches fighting for daily essentials.

Like Bread.

And Telecasters.

[P Thought]

Definitely not, and I am absolutely sure of it. That is because NOTHING I buy is ever worth anywhere near what I paid for it. EVER. No matter how long I wait. You collector/investors had better hope I never buy any of the real collectible guitars; their value will drop like a homesick rock.