Quote:
Originally Posted by Colo Springs E
.....I acknowledge it's not easy, but if, over a ten-game stretch:
The Yankees go 8-2, and Boston goes 4 and 6--both completely possible--that 8-game deficit is down to 4 games, and that seems a lot more manageable.
I think the Yankees are capable--I can't let the fact I hate them cloud my logic. I just hope it doesn't happen, would LOVE to see them miss the playoffs by a 1/2 game!!  |
Your logic is a flawed in that you can't just randomly choose a 10 game stretch. Stats don't work like that. You have to consider the whole picture not just bits and pieces.
Currently the Yanks have to play 68 more games and the Sox and the Indians have 66 to go. If either the Sox and or the Indians play .500 the rest of the way the Yanks would still have to win at a .581 rate or go 43 - 25 to pass either.
Basically the Sox or the Indians would have to play 94 percentage points below what they are playing now and the Yanks would have to improve by 70 percentage points to win by ONE game.
Obviously if the Sox or the Indians play at a clip greater than .500 than the Yanks chore gets much tougher or conversely if the Indians or the Sox REALLY tank and drop well below .500 for the remaining games, things get much better for the Yanks.
Don't think the Yanks are getting in. May be wrong but I don't think so.